Obviously that’s only true in the long term. There were some times when buying insurance may have been a good idea (eg early 2020) but that’s easier to say in hindsight. If you’re managing savings for a pension then this kind of thing could make sense as you get old because you mightn’t live long enough for the costs to average out. But the normal way to deal with that is adjusting the balance between equities and bonds.
It's 90% of treasure bonds and some small percent of options
On a bulish market, you loose some performance (insurance costs) for renewing the options
On a bearish market (crash) your bonds loose market value, but the options will go up N amount of times. which will give you overall positive performance.
If the market stagnates, you'll loose money as the options continue to be renewed while the bonds are stable.
And you don't need to allocate all your portfolio to this ETF, can simply combine it with everything else you have. ----
Anyway
I've done this before, I believed the market could become wild
I bought VIX options and got lucky with a 20x score
Obviously this is not that easy or accessible to retail investors (and it's gonna cost at least 100$ monthly)
But if one's to believe we're near the peak, and the crash could be coming any time soon (next couple of months), buying this kind of insurance would make sense (I think about it as Insurance as a Service, because I just want a simple monthly subscription for the work behind the scenes)
in the end it's just another market traded instrument, and you can sell it before expiration for a possibly better price
Even if SPY would be better than any less diverse or hand picked options from retail under the same crash market conditions
More complex the product, higher the counterparty risk.
Paper currency, FDIC insured bank accounts, CDs, TIPS, Treasuries, VCSH…
Biggest of all, having a network of people that can and will help you (such spouse, kids, grandkids, cousins friends, political allies, etc)
my idea is that if you have a stock portfolio, you could get "insurance" on it
Big banks and investment funds certainty do it, one way or another
I'was simply thinking of a more accessible approach to retail investors
"insurance as a service", pay 50$ per month for protection against stock crashes
Technically, I'm guessing this would not be called "insurance" but a financial instrument or investment which buyers/investors would get benefits under certain conditions.
I do not know what you mean by this, but hedge funds hedging their positions is not “insurance”.
You cannot earn a return with no risk. If you want to de risk, the counter party is going to want commensurate payment to take on the risk plus a profit premium.
Just like you cannot profit off of auto insurance (unless you have inside knowledge of their premium pricing and can game it), you would not be able to profit off of “insuring” your investments, which would defeat the whole point of investing. At that point, just invest in less risky things, like bonds or cash.
Note that risk has a time component, so risk for an equity index fund for year 0 to 3 will be higher than a bond fund, but for years 20 to 30 it might be basically the same. So insuring yourself against risks for an investment in an equity index fund you do not need for 2+ decades is pointless.
this goes to my last point
> Technically, I'm guessing this would not be called "insurance" but a financial instrument or investment which buyers/investors would get benefits under certain conditions.
I would not expect to have this insurance for long periods of time
But could be interesting when it feels like we hit the peak of the market
You only have a loss when you sell a security. So if you are interested in needing to be able to sell securities in the next 3 years, then invest it in a security that will not lose value in the next 3 years, such as bonds or FDIC insured accounts or cash. If you are not selling in the next 3 or 5 or 10 years, then historically, equities do not lose money that far in the future. The further out into the future, the lower the probability of loss.
So you “insure” yourself by making appropriate investments for the appropriate time horizon.
and I'd be interested to compare performance of both approaches (probably you're right, anything else is too difficult or expensive for retail investors and doesn't give extra return)
thank you for the exchange so far
Could be a simple monthly subscription which buys managed basket of options (call on VIX, puts on SP500, Nasdaq, etc)
Or should the average retail investor get into the Black Swan ETF (https://www.amplifyetfs.com/swan.html) or similar to protect against these events?