>Vaccination reduces the risk of myocarditis relative to not getting vaccine.

only when covid gets to 25% of population. Until that the vaccine results in higher risk of myocarditis than covid. And if we use cut-off of 40 years age, then the risk is even more worse with vaccine.

Over what time period? It seems pretty clear that covid is not going anywhere. Eventually almost everyone will get it. The only real question is do you want to be vaccinated when that happens to you. The answer is a no- brainer no matter how you look at the data. Which is why I'm surprised and saddened by how many people can't see that for one reason or another. As a programmer who lives and breathes logic, so often I find myself unable to relate to or understand how many people live their lives largely devoid of good logical reasoning. So much emotion and tribalism.

Family has died or almost died from this disease, and it was entirely preventable. Whenever you depart from the basis of reality, by being wrong about some aspect of it, there is always a price to be paid. At times I have paid this price and I really value careful and rational challenging of all my beliefs.

> Eventually almost everyone will get it.

Do you mean symptomatic Covid or just a positive PCR test?

Neither. An infection, which may or may not be symptomatic.

> The only real question is do you want to be vaccinated when that happens to you.

I don't really care. I haven't even had the flu yet and I am in my 40s. The question is also what state the virus will be in by the time it reaches any particular person (Omicron seems likely to be less severe than delta). and what that person's vaccination status will be at that time in terms of time since last booster etc. Also, vaccines seem to decrease in effectiveness with each booster shot over a certain number.

Covid-19 will get to 25% of the population. It’s nearly there in many countries. The UK had 11 million confirmed cases for a 66 million population. Germany is comparatively good with 6 million confirmed on an 80 million population. Both is severely undercounting, as it doesn’t include asymptomatic cases and people that did not get tested.

Covid will sooner or later infect everyone, likely even people that are vaccinated. The entire goal of the vaccination campaign is to slow and manage the spread and to reduce the severity of the infection.

>The entire goal of the vaccination campaign is to slow and manage the spread

Looks like you're repeating some politicians' talking point without bothering to check it yourself - the existing vaccines have no noticeable effect on the spread:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y

"Unfortunately, the vaccine’s beneficial effect on Delta transmission waned to almost negligible levels over time. In people infected 2 weeks after receiving the vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, both in the UK, the chance that an unvaccinated close contact would test positive was 57%, but 3 months later, that chance rose to 67%. The latter figure is on par with the likelihood that an unvaccinated person will spread the virus."

> Looks like you're repeating some politicians' talking point without bothering to check it yourself - the existing vaccines have no noticeable effect on the spread:

If you assume that everyone except you just repeats something some other party has said then I don’t think there’s much to discuss here.

I admit that I haven’t run studies myself, but I have read up what experts in virology and epidemiology have to say and I do have a bit of an understanding about how statics work. The studies you cite show the risk of spreading an infection once a person is infected and that’s the same or at least similar to what for both vaccinated and unvaccinated people. There was hope that vaccines would also reduce that risk, but they do not significantly, at least from what we know today. However, this only is one very small piece of the puzzle. To spread, the virus needs to infect a person in the first place - and that risk is significantly reduced, even for the latest variants that partially escape the vaccine. So getting vaccinated significantly reduces both your personal risk and the risk of becoming a spreader.

>In people infected

That's measure people who got the vaccine and then got infected. It's not factoring in how the vaccine reduces infections.

>It's not factoring in how the vaccine reduces infections.

The existing covid vaccines don't really reduce infections. Vaccinated chances of getting infected is about 1/3rd that of unvaccinated if one looks at the official numbers of infections at those places where such numbers are available. Giving that vaccine decreases the symptoms it is natural to expect that all those hordes of asymptomatic vaccinated virus spreaders aren't accounted for (CDC wouldn't count breakthrough until it is a hospitalization). The precise estimates of those unaccounted breakthrough is a wild guess, yet ballpark estimation (based on asymptomatic to symptomatic ratio for vaccinated which is much higher that that ratio for unvaccinated) brings vaccinated infection rate on par to that of unvaccinated.

>The precise estimates of those unaccounted breakthrough is a wild guess

Do you really need to wild guess? Couldn't you randomly test both vaccinated and unvaccinated people and see which group gets infected more often?

Empirical proof seems to indicate that your theory is wrong. Look at the infection numbers in Israel for example how they track pretty well with their vaccination campaign.

yep, Israel is one of the data point i used:

https://www.science.org/content/article/grim-warning-israel-...

" Israel has among the world’s highest levels of vaccination for COVID-19, with 78% of those 12 and older fully vaccinated, the vast majority with the Pfizer vaccine. Yet the country is now logging one of the world’s highest infection rates, with nearly 650 new cases daily per million people. More than half are in fully vaccinated people"

more-than-half. Say 55%. 22% gets 45%, 78% gets 55%. I.e. the 1/3rd as i said.

Current incidence is about 50. Israel has been the first country to experience that the immunity from vaccination wanes after 6 month and had a severe peak. If you look at the development of the caseload over time, it tracks the initial vaccination campaign, rises after 6 month, falls after the booster campaign.

The vaccine loosing effectiveness and the occurrence of partially vaccine-evading variants have been predicted from the outset. The open question was always where and when that would happen.

Edit: references for the Israeli case load and development over time https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m... You can clearly identify the two peaks, about 6 month apart.

Total number of cases changes, yet for Delta the 1/3rd has been pretty much the same over time and over space (UK, Israel, Singapore, MA in US (they have good data)). For Omicron it seems much higher than the 1/3rd.

>The vaccine loosing effectiveness

it never been effective at controlling the spread. It was developed for Alpha and was obsoleted almost immediately by Delta.

> Vaccination increases the risk of myocarditis.

Relative to the base-level in a pre-covid world?

Yes. According to this same study covid-19 has a 4x higher incidence of myocarditis than the "worst" of the mRNA vaccines. So the smart bet is still get the vaccine. That's not even accounting for all the other effects of a covid illness, including death.

I think there's a misunderstanding. funklute was asking about the pre-covid world, but your answer is about people who have covid.

adjusted for calendar time from 1 December 2020 to 24 August 2021