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Re:Web3 is going just great by pcwalton on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @03:31PM (#29557175)
> It would hard for me to make a case that eventually cryptocurrency will fail.

It's easy for me to make that case. Ransomware aside, there's no underlying value in cryptocurrency, unlike currencies which have the full faith and credit of governments. This is a fundamental problem that I see no way around.

Re:Web3 is going just great by erulabs on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @03:55PM (#29557563)
I'm sure you'll roll your eyes at this response, but a large chunk of economists don't believe there is value in anything. Your definition of "value" might mean "utility" or "what the US treasury says this is worth", or something else entirely. Starting a discussion with "well, it doesn't have any value" is more or less meaningless, and borders on economically illiterate, excuse the harshness.

My stuffed animal from when I was a baby has no "value", but I find it quite valuable. This isn't pendantics either - it determines more or less your entire economic perspective. If you believe in a utility or labor theory of value, of course crypto is a scam. A subjective theory? Not so much.

If someone trades an ETH for a Dollar, has value been changed? Moved around? Created? Has someone been scammed? Has wealth been created? Has net happiness been increased? Value is an extremely non-trivial thing and will lead you to love or hate the exact same situation depending on your chosen definition.

At any rate, I agree, crypto contains no value intrinsically. That said, I'm buying at the current price!

Those crypto-fans who are saying "ah well the -network- has intrinsic value" are missing the point. Value does not exist in the world. Value is like beauty or color - it's a subjective experience. All statements in the form of "X has no value" must be concatenated with "to me".

If anyone finds this incredibly interesting, and a fairly ignored part of epistemology, I strongly recommend reading Carl Menger's "The Origin of Money"

Re:Web3 is going just great by lapinot on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @04:20PM (#29557973)
> I'm sure you'll roll your eyes at this response, but a large chunk of economists don't believe there is value in anything.

Food and shelter have value which is pretty near to objective. In fact it is routinely used to compare economic levels throughout history or societies. In fact it's quite useful to distinguish market price from usage (intrinsic) value. Usage value is variable from individual to individual, but there is a hierarchy of things we usually agree on, at the bottom being water, then food, then light, ... (biological stuff) then social interactions, intellectual stimulation, ... (more complex social stuff), then things like healthcare or gun access which will obviously depend on your political ethic (but which still are largely clustered, just not universal). So sure market price doesn't denote value, and intrinsic value is a fuzzy hierachy that is more and more precise given more and more assumptions on social norms, but the bottom of this hierachy is non-trivial (not everything at 0) and the top isn't that diverse.

Marx & Engels had a (critical) theory of capitalistic value where value is actually pretty well defined, as the amount of human work which has gone into something. That may be seen as an extension of what i first said (the value of human time being at least cost of life for that time).

Re:Web3 is going just great by erulabs on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @04:34PM (#29558184)
While pragmatically what you've said is entirely true - if we treat the subject with some rigor it's extremely easy to find examples of people who have valued food and shelter at zero. What of the self-immolating buddhist? They valued Tibet's freedom over their own life, and certainly over food and shelter.

So sure, most reasonable people would agree on food and water - but that's introducing a very very powerful new actor - your ability to judge other peoples actions as reasonable or rational. If you reserve that right - then sure, let's call crypto irrational - let's stand on the sidelines and say "well I wouldn't do that!" - let's start building the hierarchy of "reasonable values". I'm only suggesting that our ability to call someone else's valuation irrational behavior is dubious at best and aggressively violent, the birth of social engineering, the sourge of humanity, at worst (hyperbole maybe, but maybe not).

That impulse to guide "rationality" is exactly why we have modern monetary policy, and the only philosophical reason to like cryptocurrencies: a well designed, well distributed immutable ledger is more or less immune from such "guidance".

Edit: Obviously, I disagree strongly with the labor theory of value. I don't have anything handy, but there is a lot written on this (and I think the labor theory of value is fairly well demolished!). Let me know and I'd be happy to send links!

Re:Web3 is going just great by lapinot on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @05:23PM (#29558937)
I'm gonna nitpick on your nitpicking, but for me the self-immolating buddhist did value life/means of existance just like everybody else, it's just that they valued some more complex thing more (that thing being of course extremely rare). I mean i'm pretty sure my view is (at least superficially) consistent (eg i believe i can find alternate interpretations for any counter examples) so we have to look a bit deeper!

About your pick on judging other and building a hierarchy of reasonable values: well that's politics/ethics/moral (i'm no philosopher so i don't fully understand the difference between these concepts)! I'm not here saying there a is a total order between value systems, mostly a partial order based on inclusion/precision. And i'm asserting that whatever the set of living things you're taking, they'll have a non-trivial greatest lower bound (eg there is a common notion of intrinsic value) (but i think you got that).

About rationality: perhaps we don't understand the same thing by rationality but i believe one cannot be irrational, it's kinda vacuous. One can be in irrational with respect to some value system, but every one is (boundedly) rational with respect to his values (and it's by this axiom that we can infer peoples value systems). My comparison of value systems isn't on qualitative comparison between alternatives (me good you bad), it's a comparison on commonness/shared-base (this specific to me, this specific to you, this common).

on your edit: :) you feel nice to disagree with, send already, but i'm not promising i'll read! Btw i'm not sure i'll actually disagree with such critics, i personally don't really believe in value (as a homogeneous unit) because different things aren't always comparable and even different orders of magnitude of the same thing aren't always comparable (i've got no value for 0.01 house or 100 house, or more precisely it's not 0.01 resp 100 times my value for 1 house).

Re:Web3 is going just great by dontreact on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @04:17PM (#29557910)
What's going to happen when people start trying to retire by selling crypto?

Many people will be selling at the same time, and suddenly the subjective value for everyone will be lower because it will be easier and easier to buy it.

My sense is that there is a cap on the demand for purchasing crypto, but the supply is very low because mining decreases over time, and generally people holding lots of crypto are younger and have no need to sell in order to pay for things, they can just pay with their fiat income.

This equation will change drastically as people start to retire and need to sell lots of crypto in order to fund their lifestyle without working.

Re:Web3 is going just great by ipaddr on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @04:25PM (#29558051)
The value of whatever coin you have may go down. Planning a retirement around a lottery ticket is fun but you still stuff your retirement fund.

Bitcoin slows down ensuring it's value continues to increase with fewer buyers.

Proper retirement planning means moving from 100% risky in your 20s to 50/50 in your 40s to 10/90 in your 60s.

Re:Web3 is going just great by dontreact on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @09:45PM (#29561439)
What happens when people start generally moving away from crypto towards less risky assets as they age? This hasn’t started yet but it will
Re:Web3 is going just great by ipaddr on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @04:19PM (#29557950)
Move value to me to value to many within a society and everyone can be on the same page
Re:Web3 is going just great by dwaite on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @09:04PM (#29561138)
Thats the rub - a currency which you can't actually spend is more of a speculative investment. A currency which you can only exchange for other more stable currencies even more so.

When you try to take a digital currency and exchange it for digital items and digital ownership, you do so in a realm where "information wants to be free" - ownership of data is not often as interesting a concept as you want.

Finally, when you try to exchange digital currency for physical goods, you start to realize ownership itself only means anything as part of the existing legal constructs - a distributed ledger "title" will only be valid when the government says it is, and a successfully executed smart contract can be effectively overturned by a judge's order.

The parties/exchanges that don't acknowledge any of this and push the decentralized, out-of-government-control messaging seem like they are tending to be the ones who are structured corporately to be highly resistant to being taken to court over false claims by their customers/victims.

Re:Web3 is going just great by exdsq on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @03:39PM (#29557292)
I’d argue there’s an underlying value in tokens like Ether that is similar to paying for compute power and storage on AWS. I’m not saying the price right now is correct, but that there is an intrinsic value.
Re:Web3 is going just great by not2b on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @03:49PM (#29557468)
It cost compute power to produce the tokens, but that's sunk cost, not intrinsic. All that matters afterward is whether people want the tokens and will exchange things of value for them.
Re:Web3 is going just great by exdsq on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @04:22PM (#29558003)
I mean the use of those to power arbitrary computation on the network. It’s not dissimilar to AWS tokens.
Re:Web3 is going just great by ahtihn on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @04:07PM (#29557768)
I think the intrinsic value is coming from the fact that you need to spend eth to run smart contracts on the Ethereum blockchain.
Re:Web3 is going just great by colejohnson66 on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @03:59PM (#29557627)
Is fiat currency any different? My coins and bills don't have any intrinsic value either, but they are still currency.
Re:Web3 is going just great by not2b on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @06:09PM (#29559430)
If your debts and bills are denominated in the currency of your country, the bills and coins have value because you know how many of them you need to pay what you owe. So yes, if we ever got to the stage where your rent is priced in some coin, that coin would correspond to a currency. But until then, it's more like a volatile stock and "currency" is a misnomer.
Re:Web3 is going just great by captainmuon on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @01:56AM (#29562886)
Why, there is value in crypocurrency. Maybe not the kind of value society actually wants. Crypto can be redeemed for drugs on the darknet. And you can use it to launder money, or to dirty money (taking your legitimate income and funneling it anonymously somewhere else).

Many cryptocurrencies have been ruled securities. Securities are not "currencies", but still have value, don't they? Even if it is just speculative value (you don't know whether the underlying business is goiong to be successful, or if it is even a scam).

Re:Web3 is going just great by leadingthenet on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @03:54PM (#29557542)
> there's no underlying value in cryptocurrency

Of course, there is a value: it's a decentralized write-only database that can be used for things like proof of ownership without the requirement of a central authority. A famous use-case is the illicit online drug trade, which cannot currently be achieved (to my knowledge) with fiat currencies.

It might never replace government-backed currencies (or it just might, who knows), but to say it literally has no utility betrays a lack of knowledge about the system.

Re:Web3 is going just great by Yizahi on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @04:10PM (#29557813)
No, it can't be used for "proof of ownership" at all. Crypto only barely works because it lives inside blockchain completely. Anything external to the blockchain (which is practically everything) can't be verified using blockchain. Only using some centralized and opaque/corrupt additions to the blockchain some rights can be maybe transferred (but not enforced even then), but at that point blockchain is useless can be safely removed if data is stored centrally.
Re:Web3 is going just great by orange8 on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @04:47PM (#29558370)
> Only using some centralized and opaque/corrupt additions to the blockchain some rights can be maybe transferred

Hmmm... centralized and opaque/corrupt. So like a traditional bank?

Re:Web3 is going just great by Yizahi on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @05:05PM (#29558655)
Assuming if the banks are bad, please tell me why are we replicating them them again but in worse way? (opaque, unregulated, anonymous and usually sitting in offshore fearing IRS sanctions)
Re:Web3 is going just great by orange8 on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @04:08AM (#29563612)
You seem to have a very flawed, fundamental misunderstanding of either the term opaque, or what a public ledger is. There is nothing opaque about bitcoin transactions. They are all (every single one of them) open to the public. They are more traceable than cash transactions and more public than bank transactions.

> please tell me why are we replicating them them again but in worse way?

But this is just your disputed opinion. It is like asking "why is Kanye always singing and selling bad new songs, and we already have the beatles". Because they can and want to.

Re:Web3 is going just great by Yizahi on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @04:28AM (#29563726)
Bitcoins are transparent, that I don't contest. Now please tell me how do Bitcoins specifically facilitate "proof of ownership" of stuff? Because that's where this thread started, that crypto will somehow do this, according to crypto fans.
Re:Web3 is going just great by orange8 on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @05:30AM (#29564081)
Short answer: passwords The very same way your online bank account facilitates "proof of ownership" of that said bank account.
Re:Web3 is going just great by Yizahi on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @06:41AM (#29564613)
Lolno. You are completely mistaken about what ownership means. I don't own my bank account (it's complicated), I don't own my HN account. Password is only used to authenticate and authorize me on the digital property owned by someone else - PG or bank corporation.
Re:Web3 is going just great by orange8 on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @06:59AM (#29564771)
You do own your hacker news account. If someone hacks into your computer, and makes stupid comments while pretending to be you, you have every right to seek compensation. Because you actually OWN your hacker news account, in the very same way you OWN the house you are renting. Your landlord cannot just rock up to your house tomorrow, walk in and sit in your yard for an hour because they "own" the house. So yes, you are right! Ownership is and can be complicated, and NFT ownership is no different. ;)
Re:Web3 is going just great by ipaddr on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @04:30PM (#29558117)
It can be used for proof of ownership not to be confused with proof of identity because anyone can check the public blockchain to determine that funds sent from account a belongs to whoever setup account a.

It allows proof ownership without proof of identity.

Re:Web3 is going just great by Yizahi on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @05:03PM (#29558624)
No it doesn't allow proof of ownership. Ownership is a set of intellectual rights encoded via laws. NFT can't do anything about IPs or laws, and won't be able in future.
Re:Web3 is going just great by ipaddr on Wednesday December 15, 2021 @02:17AM (#29562970)
Having a private key provides ownership over an account. That ownership allows you to transfer money. It allows you to accept money.

This is outside of IP or laws. You can move money without laws.

NFT are a differet topic. NFT are a way of having a digital token attached to something that can be used to determine ownership to an account. Do they need to be decentralized? No but it opens up ownership to all not just the approved.

Re:Web3 is going just great by cogman10 on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @04:01PM (#29557663)
Most currencies have no underlying value. The value of a dollar is drawn from dollar supply and trust that others will accept and value the dollar.

When a currency goes through hyperinflation, that generally happens because the government goes crazy printing the currency and the trust that others have in accepting the currency goes down.

If crypto collapses, it will likely be because it just becomes computationally infeasible to work with. The problem with the blockchain is that every action on the blockchain requires the whole blockchain. As time goes on simply storing the blockchain will be something that's simply not reasonable.

An issue specifically with bitcoin is that as time goes on, transferring a single coin in a day, month, or year becomes computationally impossible. Bitcoin is quickly rushing to a point where holders of bitcoin will be incapable of trading it.

That, IMO, will be the collapse of crypto. If you can't move the currency, it doesn't matter how much others value it. It'll become a game of hot potato. with the last few holders getting more and more desperate to unload the potato for money.

Re:Web3 is going just great by brandon272 on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @04:12PM (#29557836)
Hyperinflation after money printing is not the result of "trust going down". It's the result of increased dollars increasing aggregate demand in a system that cannot keep up with productive capacity.
Re:Web3 is going just great by willob33 on Tuesday December 14, 2021 @03:47PM (#29557433)
What if the value store is the network itself.

At this point currency is an abstraction relying on computers. I handle cash personally once a month.

Amazon cashier-less stores are just as much to normalize the behavior of not paying as reducing jobs).

Producing currency, securing it, moving it, the old banking infra just for finance management has a huge environmental impact.

Banks are easily socially engineered. Corruption is rife.

Eth shouldn’t be pegged to a dollar. It’s not a currency. It’s an information network.

What crypto should be is not property but the technical network abstraction we develop and roll over.

Grifters are trying to generate traditional wealth off the idea it’s a literal thing but we could just keep rolling new protocols out. Up to you to store your work.

It’s a logical substrate for transmitting and storing information that can’t be monopolized like physical money if we see it as such.

Unlike banks with full vaults, ephemeral network control can be coded out. No one person can become a black hole with disproportionate pull on social agency.