Re:Predict civilization collapse with Python and World3 model
by navaati on Monday December 13, 2021 @02:24AM
(#29537525)
On the other hand, population levels reducing (via education and stability) will reduce the amount of resources globally needed, and the loss of workforce can be compensated by technology. That can lead us to a scenario that's perfectly fine despite a high cost of resources.
[ Parent
| on HN ]
Re:Predict civilization collapse with Python and World3 model
by actually_a_dog on Monday December 13, 2021 @03:51AM
(#29537913)
There are 2 scenarios in the original Limits to Growth that encapsulate this:
1. The "comprehensive technology" scenario in which population stabilizes, food production increases to keep pace, pollution eventually drops to essentially zero, and industrial output actually decreases as a result of increased efficiency.
2. The "stabilized world" scenario, where population, industrial output, and food output all stabilize quickly, and pollution also eventually drops to 0.
The difference between these 2 scenarios is essentially that in the latter, technology does not progress fast enough to save us, but we are able to put the brakes on and save ourself; while, in the former, increases in efficiency due to technology are what allows us to stave off collapse.