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Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by dmingod666 on Saturday December 11, 2021 @09:03PM (#29526394)
Very naive question, but, why do we need to go smaller and smaller, why can we not go bigger in terms of processor size? why would double the size of the processor == double the number of transistors be worse than packing more transistors in the same space. What are the limiting factors in going bigger?
Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by tux3 on Saturday December 11, 2021 @09:45PM (#29526652)
Yield and reticle size!

You can have more chiplets in your processor, but the manufacturing process won't let you make one really big monolith.

You can have something like Cerebras' wafer-scale chip. It's a whole wafer!

But with that approach you still really have a network of identical processor subunits, not one big processor.

Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by kurthr on Sunday December 12, 2021 @02:14AM (#29527748)
Also, for a given resistivity/dielectric and thickness Resistance and Capacitance also scale with length. That means that RC settling time goes as length squared (width roughly cancels since R goes down while C goes up)... ignoring any transistor scaling, just the wiring limits speed very quickly.

Reticle size (limited by lens DoF) is roughly 30mm square, and GPUs have been close to that for years.

Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by DennisP on Saturday December 11, 2021 @10:25PM (#29526865)
Thus the thought experiment near the end of the article:

> assume two iPhones floating in space were simulating two connected neurons, with direct laser links between them. In order for the two to communicate with worse than the 1/200 second latency as neighboring neurons in our brains do...the two phones would need to be over 1000 miles away from each other, about the radius of the moon.

> Thus, for the silicon advantage to start hitting scale out limits relative to what we know is biologically necessary, we would need to be building computers about the size of the moon.

Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by nine_k on Sunday December 12, 2021 @03:16AM (#29527972)
I suppose that in the brain most neurons talk to their relatively close neighbors.

To get something comparable to brain tissue, we need to be able to disperse the computing power and memory across a large number of small nodes. Currently both CPUs and RAM are hyper-centralized.

Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by robbedpeter on Saturday December 11, 2021 @09:23PM (#29526537)
Consider what we started with - vacuum tube transistors - and the tasks being optimized, and learn about the first few iterations as processors were being developed. If each transistor is a bit then the number of transistors is the number of bits you can process per cycle. Each time you cut the transistor size in half, you can fit 4 times as many transistors in the same space, and it takes less time for signal to propagate between individual transistors. At a certain point, physics limitations will prevent shrinking the 2d area over which you can arrange transistors, so you'll have to start building into 3d arrangements.

Bigger is slower and uses less transistors. It's also hotter, since the electrical connections are longer and thus have more resistance.

Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by rl3 on Saturday December 11, 2021 @10:12PM (#29526791)
Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by sanxiyn on Saturday December 11, 2021 @10:22PM (#29526849)
Cost. Bigger is more expensive, so going bigger improves performance but does not improve performance per dollar.
Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by dtgriscom on Sunday December 12, 2021 @07:32AM (#29529049)
Power and speed. Bigger transistors need more electrons to switch and have larger threshold voltages. More voltage and current sloshing back and forth means more time per transition and more power.
Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by ksec on Saturday December 11, 2021 @09:04PM (#29526411)
>why do we need to go smaller and smaller

Cost, performance, Energy efficiency.

Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by civilized on Saturday December 11, 2021 @09:59PM (#29526730)
You can't make a CPU faster by making it bigger. All you can do is have more CPUs working at the same time. But for the most part computers don't need more parallel processors, they need to figure out how to use the ones they already have.
Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by klelatti on Sunday December 12, 2021 @04:13AM (#29528177)
> You can't make a CPU faster by making it bigger.

Modern CPUs identify and take advantage of potential parallelism in apparently sequential code. When you compare Apple’s large cores with the small ones on the same SoC the extra transistors are used to do this.

So you can make a CPU faster by making it bigger.

Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by sdenton4 on Saturday December 11, 2021 @11:00PM (#29527005)
Well, the last decade of graphics processing and ml are pretty solidly on the side of more+better parallelism. And brains, for that matter.
Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by visarga on Sunday December 12, 2021 @02:49AM (#29527865)
Human cells/neurons also run in parallel.
Re:Moore's Law, AI, and the pace of progress by spixy on Sunday December 12, 2021 @06:42AM (#29528804)
bigger = components are far away to each other = electric signals have to travel for a longer time