Just like a bunch of pump and dumps... before they went down for the last time.

I’m not taking a stand on crypto here, just pointing out a logical fallacy, namely, the data is incomplete and we don’t know the future.

Yeah I have these same concerns about the US dollar. People are like "oh but it's so stable yada yada". At most it's been that way since WW2. It's not THAT long. A blip in the history of human civilization at best.

At what point does that stop being a logical fallacy? We’re on year 13, is it year 30? 50? If there’s no end date then this can be said about everything and is therefore not a fallacy.

If we take the USD as an example:

1. Created in 1792

2. Gold standard in 1900

3. Abandoned gold in 1971

Not sure at what point USD was no longer a logical fallacy. If it's the 1971 non-gold-standard dollar to now, then it's exactly 50 years as of now. Or for the full history of the dollar it's 229 years.

We’re on year 13 of a pump and dump?

The South Sea company bubble in the 1700s (arguably a similar circumstance) was ~9 years in, if I'm correct in my math. Tulip bubble was ~40 years in.

Tulip Mania: the classic story of a Dutch financial bubble is mostly wrong: https://theconversation.com/tulip-mania-the-classic-story-of...

While the story itself might be inflated, it still shows that a bubble doesn't have to be at the start of the market.

And the South Sea company collapse far beyond its founding _definitely_ had ramifications.

I don't know if you read that link or have read elsewhere on the topic but modern economists argue the tulip mania thing wasn't even a bubble and if it was, it was far smaller than you probably assume. Even the wikipedia page covers these topics quite nicely.

According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania it was more like 3 years:

"contract prices for some bulbs of the recently introduced and fashionable tulip reached extraordinarily high levels, with the major acceleration starting in 1634 and then dramatically collapsing in February 1637"

From the same page -- the Tulip market didn't start at the time of the bubble.

   Their popularity and cultivation in the United Provinces (now the Netherlands)[32] is generally thought to have started in earnest around 1593 after the Southern Netherlandish botanist Carolus Clusius had taken up a post at the University of Leiden and established the hortus academicus

the tulip bubble lasted like 8 months

The dot-com bubble lasted around 10 years, increasing almost exponentially in the last 2-3. Subsequently dropped 80% and took 15 years to return to those prices.

Once NASDAQ reached $5,000 dot-com prices in 2015 it tripled to $15,000 over the following 5 years.

So it did return?

Depends on how you define 'it'. The stock market? Sure.

It didn't for Cisco.

You do take a stand with your pumpdump comment, BTC is behaving differently and has been doing this for quite a long time so I don't really see similarities with shcoin scams

There is no logical fallacy, I did not said that it will continue to go up more that it goes down, I just said that history shows...

The weight of farmed turkeys also rises very consistently from birth until a few days before Thanksgiving. Unless you know for certain why bitcoin went up in the past and also know for certain that those conditions have not changed I don't think the argument that "it went up in the past" should be used to justify future behavior.

Yes important to understand. What is the fundamental value of Bitcoin?