Yeah, anyone who's been following the way the virus spreads will have seen how countries will be declared success stories that beat the virus, and then a couple of months later get an enormous surge. Or we'll be told that a country is on the brink of collapse, but then the wave breaks and the cases suddenly start dropping. Just to give one example, here's how Czechia was presented in the summer of 2020[1]:

> Anyone interested in a real world case study on the extraordinary effectiveness of face masks in suppressing the spread of the coronavirus need look no farther than Prague. In this capital city of 1.3 million, among the first in Europe to decree mandatory universal mask-wearing almost four months ago, life has now returned to normal.

Most of Europe in general was presented as having beat COVID before the late summer surge.

No matter what happens, people say it proves their preconceived beliefs correct. "This country is doing better? Well, that's simply because they did [THING I LIKE]. Now it's doing worse? It must be because they're not doing [OTHER THING I LIKE]."

[1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/07/14/how-czech-...

I think your observation points to the fact that Covid must be stopped globally. No country is safe until all countries (who allow international travel) are safe.

COVID can never be stopped globally. SARS-CoV-2 is now the fifth endemic human coronavirus and will never be eradicated regardless of how many people wear masks or get vaccinated or whatever. There is no such thing as "safe", we just have to accept the risk and move on. Fortunately the vaccines and other treatments are very effective at preventing deaths.

https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

> Just looking at raw stats says Africa did really well with Covid even without the vaccine.

Africa is doing surprising well with COVID-19, considering expectations. Reasons may include:

* Not kidding themselves like UK and US did that they were "world leaders", and had this in the bag. (1)

* Recent and ongoing experience of combatting other diseases, e.g. HIV, TB, Ebola.

1) "In October 2019, an extensive report two years in the making placed the US and the UK first and second respectively in a global ranking of countries’ pandemic preparedness." https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/uk-coronavirus-pandem...

Obesity is one of several critical factors. The obesity rate in most African countries is relatively low.

https://www.wfae.org/health/2021-09-30/novant-says-9-of-10-c...

Vietnam has low obesity and has one of the higher fatality rates.

I’d argue it’s all about how Covid deaths are counted and how widespread testing is.

Having worked in healthcare attributing a cause of death is not easy in many cases. There are underlying factors and comorbidities.

In Singapore pneumonia deaths were typically 4,000 per year. That went down dramatically with covid. Why? Because they died of covid not pneumonia.

Another reason may be better ventilation.

The last time I was in an African city there wasn't air-conditioning as standard in houses. Sure, windows were open in summer, but closed up in winter. Office buildings had the usual levels of ventilation. I can't really describe this as "better" - how about you?

The population is perhaps much younger in Africa as well? The healthcare system is also less advanced / widespread so there are fewer people living with underlying illnesses that increase the severity of Covid once infected.