Something you may be more familiar with is people's concept that someone that "knows computers" is familiar with any and every sort of task that involves a computer whereas in fact this could encompass a wide variety of different skills that require an individual investment of time.

The same can be said of medicine where encompasses a very broad set of skills. Your doctor may have been an expert in sports medicine or brain surgery but it doesn't automatically make him competent and epidemiology. It also doesn't force him to pay attention to current developments in the news which is likely what informed your opinion. Personally I found it was completely obvious in January that we would be dealing with a crisis because I followed the situation and suspect strongly that your doctor friend did not.

There is also the issue of survivor-ship bias. We worry about many things and we will absolutely recall the times our worry was justified and forget when it we are mistaken. If Yellowstone ever blows there will be many people who knew it was just around the corner and this will be true if it blows now or in a century, whether or not we have any scientific basis for the thought process.

TLDR: A singular doctor of unknown specialty getting it wrong in January isn't a flaw in science. Science isn't expected to be very good at ensuring a single expert of only tangential expertise gives you the right answer whereas it is reasonable good groups sometimes slowly arriving at increasingly correct answers. If you want a more correct answer consider consulting or reading what several people of relevant expertise who are up to the minute on current information have to say.