Arctic Ocean started getting warmer decades earlier than we thought

Re:Arctic Ocean started getting warmer decades earlier than ... by jazzyjackson on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @09:58AM (#29392798)

for context, greenhouse effect was first described in 1824 and a good approximation of the warning effect of doubling of atmospheric CO2 was made in 1896 (+2.5~4 C) [0]

From 1800 to 1900, CO2 ppm rose from 280 to 300

Of course, from 1900 til today it has risen to over 400ppm

My point is, we were burning a significant amount of coal throughout 1800s - Acid rain was happening in the 1850s [1]

[0] http://interactive.fusion.net/200-years-of-climate-science-a...

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acid_rain

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Re:Arctic Ocean started getting warmer decades earlier than ... by refurb on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @10:19AM (#29393033)

But we’ve doubled CO2 and haven’t seen a 2.5 to 4C temperature rise? What do you mean “good approximation”?

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Re:Arctic Ocean started getting warmer decades earlier than ... by jazzyjackson on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @10:39AM (#29393289)

280 to 400 is not doubling

I guess I was quoting the source in saying the pencil and paper estimate is in line with modern climate models

edit: from a cursory googling, looks like 450ppm is in line with 2C warning while 600pm is the higher end at 4C warning

note also temperature lags behind co2 (since heat is captured cumulatively over time) so even if we stabilized now at ~412ppm we will continue to see warming

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