Re:Update on Omicron
by saalweachter on Sunday November 28, 2021 @09:49PM
(#29375788)
Following the references, it all seems solid; the referenced authors note this hasn't been observed for human viruses yet (2017), but posits non-sterilizing vaccines in humans might be too new.
On the other hand, it seems like a kind of inverse prisoners' dilemma.
If no one vaccinates, this particular pathway for the evolution of super-viruses is closed (although others remain open). If some people vaccinate, and a super-virus evolves, they're fine and the rest are screwed, classic P.D.
But it deviates where unlike the classic P.D. where things get worse if everyone defects, once everyone vaccinates, it doesn't matter if a super-virus evolves, because everyone is protected.
So while this raises an interesting policy question on whether non-sterilizing vaccines are worth the risk, once people begin "defecting" by getting vaccinated, it seems like a bad move to risk staying unvaccinated yourself.
On the other hand, it seems like a kind of inverse prisoners' dilemma.
If no one vaccinates, this particular pathway for the evolution of super-viruses is closed (although others remain open). If some people vaccinate, and a super-virus evolves, they're fine and the rest are screwed, classic P.D.
But it deviates where unlike the classic P.D. where things get worse if everyone defects, once everyone vaccinates, it doesn't matter if a super-virus evolves, because everyone is protected.
So while this raises an interesting policy question on whether non-sterilizing vaccines are worth the risk, once people begin "defecting" by getting vaccinated, it seems like a bad move to risk staying unvaccinated yourself.