> I don't mean that one should be naive about things.
i think that’s the literal disagreement we are having
> I've known a variety of addicts
how bout they try to get more oxy by any means necessary? i think i’m safe. i also think that some people really like to believe the line you’re selling, but that’s all it is. want and belief. some call it faith. whatever you want to call it, it’s wrong.
I don't mean that one should be naive about things. You might correctly observe that a high percentage of Oxycontin addicts exhibit behaviour X, and therefor you might want to keep a wary eye out for that behaviour when dealing with an individual Oxycontin addict. Of course that way lies confirmation bias, which one must also guard against. But it's still better than saying that because most Oxy addicts exhibit trait X, this individual addict will necessarily exhibit trait X. That's worse than confirmation bias becuause it's pre-confirmation bias. You're treating statistics about a group as evidence about an individual -- and that's wrong.