4M type volumes are possible at only lower price points.

I am very skeptical that battery costs are going to drop that much that Tesla can make cars for say 15-20k and retail at 25-30k to make the 10k profit you propose.

Battery chemistry is rapidly evolving of course with lesser conflict resources / better performance etc, but raw material costs for basic ingredients are fairly expensive, that puts a hard floor under which it would be hard for Tesla to go below.

A 40K tesla car is very conservatively equivalent to a 30K gas car in terms of total cost of ownership. The 3 factors are

1. Significantly reduced energy costs

2. Significantly reduced maintenance, not even oil changes

3. Significantly longer car life, because of having barely any moving parts.

Most of the car parts that go bad in the 100K-300K mile range don't even exist in a Tesla.

Tesla is production limited, not demand limited in its sales. Just the model 3, model y and cybertruck will get them to 4M per annum - no problem.

No - they'd still need to get their profit margin to be ~25% instead of ~10%.

Tesla can definitely sell more vehicles OR increase margin - but it will be substantially more challenging to do both at the same time over a short horizon (10 years).

Tesla is operating at significantly over 10% per car profit as per estimates. A report earlier this year estimated almost 30%.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-record-q1-2021-gross-margin-...

Musk also projected Tesla owning 1M robotaxis by 2020.

We are not talking about Elon time. They made 237k cars in Q3, and will most certainly close a year with 900k(+-50k) cars produced. With two new fabs coming online in 2022 and growing capacity on existing fabs they will comfortably close 2022 with over a million cars made, and I think the final amount will be just short of 2 millions.

>Right now they are projected to sell more than 1M cars in 12 months

So after converting from Musk time to human time, this means it'll take 5 years?

They sold more than 237K last quarter. Check their earnings report.

Yes, and?

One year is composed of 4 quarters. I will the rest of the math to you.

Did you read "if Tesla can sell 4M cars at 10K profit every year"?

Did you read "IF ... "