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A comment on It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere. Parent comment

Re:It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s ... by asdff on Tuesday November 09, 2021 @12:23AM (#29158035)
If anything the great depression supported this thesis of stocks always going up, and you can safely forget sweating the actual underlying economics. If you held through the crash or bought at the bottom you'd obviously be doing fine. Look at this chart (1). Seem familiar? Looks a lot like the great recession or March 2020 to me: a big plunge that took headlines followed by an unstoppable bull trend, in this case one that kept advancing for decades and decades to today (2).

Keep in mind what is key with this thesis is not some fantastical belief that stocks always go up out of magic. It's the understanding that the actions undertaken by the federal government and major banks that run the global economy will always generate increasing stock prices no matter any local blip or bloop or crash or fall in that moment. Buy the dip and take advantage of the sale price, then enjoy the guaranteed ride upwards supported by every major financial institution and first world government on earth, is what the past 100 years of macroeconomics have taught us.

1. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/8/4/763684-1312...

2. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/3/16/saupload_b...

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Re:It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s ... by slv77 on Tuesday November 09, 2021 @08:51AM (#29161684)
Japans stock market would like to have a word with you. (https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/30-years-since-J...)

Yes, the US stock market has had a wonderful hundred year run during a time the market went from a backwater developing market to a global hedgemon and through a one-time demographic dividend where it halved its non-working population (children) and doubled its workforce (women) and had an extremely open immigration policy for working age adults.

Of course past performance is no indication of future concerns.

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Re:It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s ... by imtringued on Tuesday November 09, 2021 @10:37AM (#29163110)
You're misinterpreting the situation completely. China is running a trade surplus vs USA which means China has lots of dollars. Because of foreign exchange policy it will not use the dollars on imports. The only thing the money can be spent on is financial assets. All the Fed does is lower interest rates in response to this "savings glut" and that is the right thing because oversupply should result in lower prices for anything including money.

Because of the reserve currency status almost every country on earth is running a surplus vs the US and buying their financial assets.

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Re:It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s ... by asdff on Tuesday November 09, 2021 @06:05PM (#29168786)
With every government in the world buying US finantial assets that should lend even more support to the idea of loading up on assets yourself and riding the wave indefinitely, if the whole entire world is so overleveraged in American markets they will also do nothing to rock this boat since everyone around the world has been eating well betting on the market.
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Re:It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s ... by Jensson on Tuesday November 09, 2021 @12:54AM (#29158216)
USA losing its status as the world leader might change that trend though. Before the pandemic it could be a few decades away, but now? Possibly within even just a few years, if that happens I wouldn't want to be among those having my savings in American stocks.
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Re:It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s ... by asdff on Tuesday November 09, 2021 @05:47PM (#29168581)
Where would you even put your money? There is no alternative. The NYSE and the NASDAQ have a combined market cap of 50 trillion dollars. The next largest exchange, In Shangai, has a market cap of 7 trillion. Euronext is also 7 trillion. JPX is 6.7 trillion. It's clear the world is parking their money here. They aren't going to put it elsewhere. We are the global marketplace.
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