Right, though it currently looks that autopilot is about to work out, if you look at the FSD beta releases (check the videos on YouTube). And the Hertz order points to the possibility of the 20M cars/year being not to far off both in volume as in time frame.
I feel people have really short memory wrt. Elon's optimism. Not everything he promises pans out (autopilot being the prime example), but usually, it does, just slightly later than promised.