well we can start that virginia turnout was 3 points higher in 2020 than 2016: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/registrati... about 400000 more votes than 2016. How many points did D legislators win by compared to 2016? if they moved only three points to win, then it was likely mostly turnout related, not party switching. Also you need to accommodate for the GOP voter that says "not my party" is very likely to simply not vote, or vote third party, likely moreso than to vote for a Democrat. This would indicate "alienation" of such voters is a good strategy in fact. It's certainly the strategy that the GOP uses against Democrats in order to get us not to turn out.

put another way, I have a lot of republicans in my family. There is zero chance of any of them ever changing. It's absurd that we all would need to be concerned about speaking the truth of the GOP party for fear of "alienating" these people. This is a silencing tactic, plain and simple. The GOP takes no such steps to avoid losing potential D switchers.