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Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by wespiser_2018 on Friday October 15, 2021 @12:32PM (#28879665)
A maze or requirement, bureaucracy, and interoperability with existing and TBD systems? Software is expensive to build. Reliable software all that much more.

If you consider an alternative, just make an app and stick phone on a rifle, sure, that will work for 90% of the stuff you want to do, but it would break and that's bad. A true "heads up display" that you can bet your life on, anywhere on earth, at any time, is just a truly massive undertaking.

Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by dralley on Friday October 15, 2021 @12:36PM (#28879725)
I'm sorry but even taking into account the clusterf*** of government procurement this is a truly obscene price tag. Even by government standards, this is ridiculous.

It's half as much as the development of the entire flipping Space Shuttle. It's more than Apple's entire yearly R&D budget. It's more than the James Webb Space Telescope and the entire Hubble program (including operations and the repairs that were needed post-launch) combined. It's roughly the cost of 8 Mars rovers of the same type as Curiosity / Perseverance.

This is worse, even, than the Joint Strike Fighter program, which at least started out reasonably with only a pair of 1 billion dollar grants handed out to Boeing and Lockheed to develop two functional prototype fighter aircraft (never mind how the costs spiraled later).

Setting aside the question of how much it should or shouldn't cost to develop such a product, it's absolute insanity to do it with a single massive project. The DoD loves to claim in public they're trying to be more agile, and this is the exact opposite of that. This ought to have been done $100 million (or less) at a time with limited initial scope and incrementally expanding goals.

Don't make excuses for this. There is no possible justification.

Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by whb07 on Friday October 15, 2021 @09:20PM (#28884825)
I generally agree with you, but 2021 USD is literally trash vs 1980 USD.

For reference, an ounce of gold in the peak at 1980 (which was a long while peak btw) was $800ish, an ounce of gold today is $1800. So more than 2x.

So $22B today is more like $10B in 1980.

Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by dralley on Friday October 15, 2021 @10:49PM (#28885138)
I tried to use inflation adjusted costs. The "original" development cost of the Space Shuttle was, actually, about 10 billion dollars.

Which is around 49 billion in 2020 dollars, adjusted for inflation (gold is a poor comparison, it's closer to 5x than 2x).

Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by paganel on Friday October 15, 2021 @12:44PM (#28879834)
> true "heads up display" that you can bet your life on, anywhere on earth, at any time, is just a truly massive undertaking.

At some point you have to make a cost-benefit analysis and look at the bigger picture. For example and in this particular case, yes, spending let’s say 10 billion instead of 22 billion for a rougher solution might increase the dead count on the battlefield in the near future, but if those 12 billion that you’ve now saved go to better free education at home (more engineers in the future to design better weapons) or/and to free healthcare (more fit soldiers in the future) maybe it will all even out at a higher threshold.

Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by jjk166 on Friday October 15, 2021 @01:14PM (#28880210)
> If you consider an alternative, just make an app and stick phone on a rifle, sure, that will work for 90% of the stuff you want to do, but it would break and that's bad.

Given that soldiers are currently getting by with something that works 0% of the time, the assumption that 90% isn't good enough seems highly suspect. Exactly how many more soldiers will be saved by developing a true heads up display versus an off the shelf app running on a ruggedized phone?

This seems like an obvious case of a failure to actually define requirements and make real engineering decisions.

Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by wespiser_2018 on Saturday October 16, 2021 @12:19AM (#28885516)
I don't think it's a question of "saving" soldiers, sadly, but rather, "how much more efficient will they be, especially on the attack. I don't think it's a 0% solution right now: the infantry has a lot of technology: radios, drones, and is getting more. Integrated it is just the next step.
Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by darkerside on Friday October 15, 2021 @12:38PM (#28879740)
In your simplest web software, there's the first 80% and the second 80%. With projects like this, which are literally life and death, there's many more 80%s to be considered and executed.

Do you ask why space travel is expensive? It's arguably much simpler than this is.

Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by jjk166 on Friday October 15, 2021 @01:19PM (#28880271)
If a rocket explodes, the astronauts die.

If a pair of goggles fails, the soldier takes them off.

These are the same people who equipped soldiers in Vietnam with a rifle that jams due to mud. The idea that military hardware has to be many times more reliable than space hardware is absurd.

Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by darkerside on Friday October 15, 2021 @02:30PM (#28881259)
Sometimes the rocket fails but the astronaut makes it back (Apollo 13). Sometimes the goggles fail, and the soldier misjudges a drop and breaks his leg, or walks into a known blast radius and dies, or misidentifies and kills a civilian.

Either way, if this is worth doing -- and I agree with you that it's a big, big if -- it is worth doing right.

Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by jjk166 on Friday October 15, 2021 @03:46PM (#28882238)
Astronauts surviving a failure is a once in a generation event that gets memorialized forever in movies and literature. Soldiers' equipment failing is a Tuesday.

Increased situational awareness has value, but it is a clear case of diminishing returns. Exactly what the cutoff ought to be is debatable, but that the cutoff exists is certain.

Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by darkerside on Wednesday October 20, 2021 @08:12AM (#28929718)
And this is an argument for investing less? Just because you are personally normalized to something doesn't make it acceptable.
Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by wespiser_2018 on Friday October 15, 2021 @01:20PM (#28880291)
Agreed. We've been to space, understand the risks, and have a decent understanding that X dollars pays for Y in LEO. This is an almost entirely greenfield project, so who knows if the deliverables will even be useful.
Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by cryptica on Friday October 15, 2021 @12:39PM (#28879767)
We all have nuclear weapons, why do we need rifles and infantry? This narrative is total BS. Is the goal to waste money today in order to be able to waste even more money later on countries like Iraq and Afganistan? We've seen what those rifles are used for... These rifles would be more useful to society if politicians would just shove them up their ***!
Re:Army delays $22B augmented reality goggle program by Shadonototra on Friday October 15, 2021 @10:25PM (#28885068)
I like your comments, always on point, keep it up, you are not alone in this war