15% of people that contract covid will die from it? Where are you getting this from.
https://usafacts.org/articles/americans-causes-of-death-by-a...
I am not comparing covid deaths with the entire population, only with the number of people that die from some cause. In a given year, most people do not die, other than for really old age groups.
For example, 13463 50yo females died from some cause since Jan 2020. Out of those deaths, 1605 were deaths with covid, for a 11.9% fraction. For comparison, cancer is 22% of deaths in 45-55 age group and heart disease 19.5%, making covid third cause of death for this age group, with accidents the fourth at 8.3%
data_as_of start_date end_date sex age_years total_deaths covid19_deaths
2021-10-06 2020-01-01 2021-10-02 Female 50 Years 13463 1605Depending on the age of the patient, its very likely that covid may have been the final nail on the coffin, but by no means the only nail in the grim reapers hand.
The average life expectancy is 78 in the US. What is the average age of someone that dies of covid? Last time I checked this, it was 84.
United States - Historical Death Rate Data
Year Death Rate Growth Rate
2021 8.977 1.090%
2020 8.880 1.120%
2019 8.782 1.120%
2018 8.685 1.220%
2017 8.580 1.240%
Source https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/deat...
How to explain this better? Entering 2020, there were 100 reasons for me to die. Then covid comes along and now there are 115. Not the best news ever, but I'd rather keep living life, especially after vaccines have become widely available.
As you correctly observe, the actual risk may be even lower, because the back-of-the-napkin upper bound estimation does not take in account the risk factors within an age group.