Re:The Plague of the Poor
by generj on Sunday October 10, 2021 @09:12AM
(#28818158)
Something is horribly wrong with your math.
0.000004 * 320,000,000 = 1,280 deaths for the entire USA.
Your higher estimate yields 10,240 deaths.
In reality we’ve had at least 700,000 deaths.
For those who are infected, the naive Case Fatality Rate is about 1-2%. See for example, https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
There are reasons to suspect the real rate is lower in several countries - many places under test cases, so the denominator in deaths/cases is too small.
Additionally, this rate isn’t static - we were seeing upwards of 10% death rates before effective treatments became known and available.
0.000004 * 320,000,000 = 1,280 deaths for the entire USA. Your higher estimate yields 10,240 deaths. In reality we’ve had at least 700,000 deaths.
For those who are infected, the naive Case Fatality Rate is about 1-2%. See for example, https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid There are reasons to suspect the real rate is lower in several countries - many places under test cases, so the denominator in deaths/cases is too small.
Additionally, this rate isn’t static - we were seeing upwards of 10% death rates before effective treatments became known and available.