The recent nuclear submarine deal makes a lot more sense with that world view.
China, seeking to make an example in the region, escalated.
https://www.hudson.org/research/17228-how-china-overreached-...
"Since 2018, China has refused to accept cabinet-level meetings with Australian counterparts, and for the past year is refusing to even accept phone calls. Since 2020, Beijing has imposed punitive measures against Australian barley, coal, timber, beef, cotton, sugar, copper, wool, lobsters, wine, and liquefied natural gas. These export sectors bring in around $15 billion a year from China. State authorities have issued arbitrary travel and safety warnings to Chinese students hoping to study in Australia."
Most recently saying with these new subs we are a potential nuclear target now. Or the paper cat will soon learn its lesson type articles. Quite a few of these over recent years and while many are probably bluster, it's hard for people on the end of this to not think its best to prepare for them being more than empty words.
In very broad strokes I think China spent 30 years trying to align Australia politically to them, now this has push back they have moved to make an example, not helped that our current leaders seem to have equally encouraged this new relationship. I doubt it will ever be military action but at the same time we should prepare for the unlikely. Nukes make sense for Australia and other small nations where there is threat. As much as they are horrible things and it may lead to nuclear proliferation, it's the only self reliant way for a small nation to protect itself from a large nation if things go hot.
Id actually like to see a world where countries agreed to serious limits to military. Maximum # jets, ships, troops and tanks type thing so a build-up to war would be harder, more obvious and give time to deal with fractured relationships.
It wasn't for lack of trying.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3151549/c...
But that only speaks to the total values, not substitutability or importance.
Given that most of what China imports from Australia are raw materials, and China is still a primarily manufacturing and construction economy (in dollar terms), it seems like a shortsighted move.
Especially since Australia generally has good relationships with the West (especially the UK and US) due to shared culture.
The proper time to try to bully Australia into line would have been 20 years from now, once China's economy has fully developed and Belt and Road has had time to play out.
But I imagine the Chinese were looking at Australia through the optics of (1) what the US was doing & (2) how a Chinese reaction to Australia's stubbornness would be read by other, smaller SE Asian countries.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/chinese-language-newspapers-...