Re:How does the economy work? A new Fed paper suggests nobod...
by pessimizer on Sunday October 03, 2021 @10:49AM
(#28737612)
> IIRC meteorological forecasts are about 80% accurate a few days in, 50% accurate about two weeks into the future, and after that of not much use.
I think the accuracy is more complicated than that, because while they lose precision (and thereby the correct prediction of the amount of rain in your neighborhood or town), they can predict larger movements pretty accurately pretty far in the future. I remember how bad weather prediction was 30-40 years ago, and am shocked how they now have pretty good insight into the weather two or three weeks from now.
I think the accuracy is more complicated than that, because while they lose precision (and thereby the correct prediction of the amount of rain in your neighborhood or town), they can predict larger movements pretty accurately pretty far in the future. I remember how bad weather prediction was 30-40 years ago, and am shocked how they now have pretty good insight into the weather two or three weeks from now.