Re:How does the economy work? A new Fed paper suggests nobod...
by fulafel on Sunday October 03, 2021 @09:53AM
(#28737151)
Meteorologists have it easy, because weather doesn't react to the forecast and modify its behaviour to invalidate it.
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Re:How does the economy work? A new Fed paper suggests nobod...
by shrimp_emoji on Sunday October 03, 2021 @11:04AM
(#28737739)
Self-aware weather with neurosis...
Re:How does the economy work? A new Fed paper suggests nobod...
by WalterBright on Sunday October 03, 2021 @06:25PM
(#28741039)
A butterfly flapping its wings would disagree with that.
Re:How does the economy work? A new Fed paper suggests nobod...
by cubano on Sunday October 03, 2021 @03:24PM
(#28739809)
Personally, I always love the "50% chance of rain" forecast as it perfectly describes that they have no idea if its going to rain or not, but yet sounds so scientific and official.
Re:How does the economy work? A new Fed paper suggests nobod...
by Stratoscope on Sunday October 03, 2021 @03:55PM
(#28740000)
That's actually not what "50% chance of rain" means.
Here's a pretty good explanation:
https://www.wsfa.com/2019/08/23/what-does-chance-rain-really...
And many more:
Re:How does the economy work? A new Fed paper suggests nobod...
by elcomet on Sunday October 03, 2021 @05:22PM
(#28740612)
That is absolutely not "we have no idea". It's a very precise prediction, not like a [10%-90%] range. If you look at all their 50% prediction, the half of it should be rain and half should be no rain. This is what this number tells you.
Re:How does the economy work? A new Fed paper suggests nobod...
by posco on Sunday October 03, 2021 @03:30PM
(#28739848)
Predicting 50% can be validated: if I say a coin will be heads 50% of the time, I know more than nothing: I know more than someone who incorrectly claims it will be heads 75% of the time.
And we can quantify in various ways how much better the 50% prediction is than the 75% prediction.