Re:Europe’s energy crisis is about to go global as gas price...
by jillesvangurp on Monday September 27, 2021 @12:10PM
(#28672518)
I doubt the amount of megawatts add up to this simplistic conclusion of this being because of renewables failing us or Europe abandoning nuclear. Plenty of wind here in Germany in the last few weeks. Hydro in Norway is a thing but it's actually not that big of a portion of the grid across Europe and the output is fairly stable. Nuclear has been on the decline for many years but not that many plants actually shut down recently. It certainly pales in comparison to the amount of wind/solar coming online every year. Coal decline is much more significant since the amount of that disappearing from grids is a lot higher in recent years.
The amount of gas usage for electricity production isn't actually increasing that much either because coal capacity is actually mostly being replaced with renewable energy instead. There are maybe a few new gas plants coming online recently but overall the proportion of gas is barely growing in the European electricity market (unlike renewables). E.g. Germany has actually seen a slight decrease in the overall amount of gas consumed over the last 20 years or so: https://www.statista.com/statistics/703657/natural-gas-consu...
However, the problem is not shortages or blackouts but high prices of gas specifically. There are no blackouts in Europe right now. Just people getting frustrated with having to pay more for their energy.
Partially the high prices are because of a global shift in demand and partially this is because of e.g. CO2 emission pricing, which is a thing in Europe. But a big part is also that Covid lockdown restrictions have been lifted in the last few months and economic activity and associated energy consumption is a lot higher all over the world. Large parts of Europe use gas for heating much more than for electricity. Gas shortages would be a problem for that reason specifically. So, I expect Russia will have a great year for gas exports as they will be able to charge a premium.
Wind in Germany was actually improving during August. Solar was pretty decent too though July was a bit off compared to previous years. It's autumn now so that usually means more wind and less solar. Lots of rain too. Good news for wind and hydro in other words. I'm not aware of any seasonally unusual drought or low wind predictions for the next few months.
The amount of gas usage for electricity production isn't actually increasing that much either because coal capacity is actually mostly being replaced with renewable energy instead. There are maybe a few new gas plants coming online recently but overall the proportion of gas is barely growing in the European electricity market (unlike renewables). E.g. Germany has actually seen a slight decrease in the overall amount of gas consumed over the last 20 years or so: https://www.statista.com/statistics/703657/natural-gas-consu...
However, the problem is not shortages or blackouts but high prices of gas specifically. There are no blackouts in Europe right now. Just people getting frustrated with having to pay more for their energy.
Partially the high prices are because of a global shift in demand and partially this is because of e.g. CO2 emission pricing, which is a thing in Europe. But a big part is also that Covid lockdown restrictions have been lifted in the last few months and economic activity and associated energy consumption is a lot higher all over the world. Large parts of Europe use gas for heating much more than for electricity. Gas shortages would be a problem for that reason specifically. So, I expect Russia will have a great year for gas exports as they will be able to charge a premium.
This report has a nice summary of the energy market in Europe last month: https://aleasoft.com/beyond-price-records-august-good-month-...
Wind in Germany was actually improving during August. Solar was pretty decent too though July was a bit off compared to previous years. It's autumn now so that usually means more wind and less solar. Lots of rain too. Good news for wind and hydro in other words. I'm not aware of any seasonally unusual drought or low wind predictions for the next few months.