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Re:San Francisco raises Tesla 'self-driving' safety concerns... by YeGoblynQueenne on Sunday September 26, 2021 @07:49AM (#28660118)
>> I know I am being simplistic, and I understand that no statistical model will ever make up for the loss of a family member, the generally accepted foundation for the morality of self-driving car technologies hinges on whether they can beat the human-driven statistical equivalent.

It's not about emotions; it's about statistics.

The problem that needs to be overcome is not the emotions of people losing loved ones, but the difficulty of accurately estimating safety by test-driving autonomous cars.

The following is from a Rand Corporation study titled: "Driving to Safety"; subtitle "How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?"

Key Findings

Autonomous vehicles would have to be driven hundreds of millions of miles and sometimes hundreds of billions of miles to demonstrate their reliability in terms of fatalities and injuries.

Under even aggressive testing assumptions, existing fleets would take tens and sometimes hundreds of years to drive these miles — an impossible proposition if the aim is to demonstrate their performance prior to releasing them on the roads for consumer use.

Therefore, at least for fatalities and injuries, test-driving alone cannot provide sufficient evidence for demonstrating autonomous vehicle safety.

Developers of this technology and third-party testers will need to develop innovative methods of demonstrating safety and reliability.

Even with these methods, it may not be possible to establish with certainty the safety of autonomous vehicles. Uncertainty will remain.

In parallel to developing new testing methods, it is imperative to develop adaptive regulations that are designed from the outset to evolve with the technology so that society can better harness the benefits and manage the risks of these rapidly evolving and potentially transformative technologies.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1478.html

Bottom line, Tesla's (and everybody else's) "safety record" isn't and it will take a lot more time to know whether self-driving cars are as safe as human-driven cars. The stats you quote are not sufficiently informative.

Re:San Francisco raises Tesla 'self-driving' safety concerns... by ctdonath on Sunday September 26, 2021 @11:03AM (#28661410)
Tesla is resolving this by releasing a great many vehicles with the FSD systems installed and running and feeding data back for review, while not actually operating the controls - result is to observe how the FSD would have behaved under billions of miles of driving, noting where real drivers differ from automation and why, without any real accidents attributable to on-parole systems.
Re:San Francisco raises Tesla 'self-driving' safety concerns... by JoeAltmaier on Sunday September 26, 2021 @09:21AM (#28660663)
That's silly. We'd never release any product with ridiculous standards like "Test for 100 years".

Original horseless carriages didn't have any rules like that. We liked them anyway. That seems a more realistic model of adoption, than ivory tower perfect-safety pipe dreams.

Re:San Francisco raises Tesla 'self-driving' safety concerns... by YeGoblynQueenne on Sunday September 26, 2021 @10:25AM (#28661130)
>> We'd never release any product with ridiculous standards like "Test for 100 years".

The same timeframe does not necessarily apply to other kinds of systems. The study is about self-driving cars and the numbers quoted are about self-driving cars, in particular self-driving cars compared to human-driven cars.

The study starts by defining various industry-standard measures of reliability, for example scroll down to page 3 and look at equation 1 and equation 2. You can see that those are not about "perfect safety" but about measuring the probability of an accident and so on.

As a general rule, if you are confused by the text of a study, check out the maths. They should be unambiguous.

Re:San Francisco raises Tesla 'self-driving' safety concerns... by JoeAltmaier on Sunday September 26, 2021 @11:40AM (#28661768)
Sure, but the conclusion of the post was something like "we can't test these things enough". Which seems like a deliberate misrepresentation of the math as well.
Re:San Francisco raises Tesla 'self-driving' safety concerns... by YeGoblynQueenne on Sunday September 26, 2021 @03:49PM (#28664025)
I'm sorry, which post do you mean? Who said 'something like "we can't test these things enough"'?
Re:San Francisco raises Tesla 'self-driving' safety concerns... by lnsru on Sunday September 26, 2021 @12:29PM (#28662213)
Original horseless carriages had enough weird rules: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Locomotive_Acts

Edit: it took almost 4 decades to improve them. We are starting with driverless vehicles just right now.

Re:San Francisco raises Tesla 'self-driving' safety concerns... by yawaworht1978 on Sunday September 26, 2021 @08:30AM (#28660368)
Fully agree, there are simply too many factors, all I know, a fsd shouldn't hit stationary vehicles.

Besides, i don't even see the value proposition for fsd other than commercial trucks maybe.

If people want to be driven around, maybe a taxi or public transport would be more economical and better for congestion and the environment in general. Not sure what people want to do while being driven in a fsd car. A human to human discussion is already possible. Watching a movie? Read a book? Sleep? All these are not practical in a driver's seat.