If anything, this is the reason Linux could hit that point. Desktops are increasingly for specialized applications: gaming, development, content production, etc. If you just need general consumption, you probably have a tablet or phone. I could absolutely see Linux hitting 5% just because people who would never use Linux have stopped using a computer at all.

And yet we just went through a massive GPU shortage suggesting Desktop is alive and well. Do we have any recent industry stats on this?

Have you not heard of the crypto miners buying up all GPUs

It is a factor. It is hard for me to argue that it did not have significant impact and I don't really have hard data.

That said, all the people in my circle with remote jobs upgraded their desktops or lappies. It cannot be an insignificant number given initial pandemic panic and current delta resurgence. And between China cracking down on bitcoin ( check 3060s prices there and you will be left wondering why the prices did not drop significantly here ), Treasury issuing crypto guidance on ransomware payments, and eth moving to POS, it is harder and harder to blame crypto miners.

Frankly, they sound like convenient scapegoat.

I won't go into details, but I had the option of buying 3070 yesterday and 3090 2 weeks ago. I passed on both precisely due to recent uncertainty.

desktops are effectively the only thing people play PC games on.

This is a startlingly out of touch comment. Desktop PC gaming, along with self builds are one of lockdowns hottest trends.

Go to Twitch.tv, everyone there will be on gaming PCs.