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Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by raducu on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @05:38AM (#28603388)
Yeah, that's a claim I made, out of ignorance.

It seems the chinese were lucky like the russians while the Bronze Age folks were not so lucky.

So I guess we should invest more in asteroid defense.

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by nkoren on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @05:47AM (#28603431)
We should. I've seen an analysis which concluded that your chances of dying in a meteor impact are about the same as your chances of dying in a car crash -- eg., really quite high. This doesn't sound right, because at as an individual, you're obviously far more likely to die in a car crash -- it's extremely unlikely that you'll personally die from a meteor impact. However in the very rare event that you are killed by an impact, then there's a very high probability that anywhere from tens of thousands to tens of millions will also be killed by the same event. So overall the numbers roughly balance out, and are high enough to be worth taking seriously.

Fortunately there are groups that are doing just that: https://b612foundation.org/

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by vkou on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @06:13AM (#28603555)
The main problem here is that detecting a city-killer meteor before it hits you is incredibly difficult, which really puts a damper on your ROI.

Meteors large enough to detect are both incredibly rare, and are very difficult to deal with, and meteors too small to detect will hit you before you see them.

Not to mention that any detection will come with very large uncertainty bars. Suppose that you somehow discover that a ~500 KT meteor (Like the Chelyabinsk bolide - which was only ~20 meters across - good luck figuring out an accurate orbit for it) is an impact risk. The overwhelming majority of the Earth is covered with water. The overwhelming majority of the rest is... Not densely populated. And observations put it at a 0.5% chance of striking the Earth next year, with zero ability to predict which part of the Earth will be struck.

That's the most likely outcome of a detection program. Not '100% chance', not '90% chance', but a '0.5% chance of a rock that's scary only if you're in its immediate path'. Is that worth doing anything about?

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by ClumsyPilot on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @07:15AM (#28603868)
What's the cost of a nuclear missile (or X chosen method?) Whats the cost of NYC turning in a smoldering crater * 0.5% (or whatever)?

The cost of all rockets ever launched is a pittance compared to NYC real estate

Also there is a project for a space telescooe spesifically designed to locate asteroids, its not that difficult or even expensive.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinel_Space_Telescope

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by dr_zoidberg on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @08:33AM (#28604392)
Having nuclear missiles ready at all times, all over the world (near populated areas) is a risk on its own... In a politically stable world without conflicts, sure, but we haven't had that kind of world for centuries...
Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by rscoots on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @10:39AM (#28605451)
Why would they have to be stored near populated areas for this purpose?

Even if you were gonna hit the meteor during significant downward trajectory (which seems unlikely), that would still have to be done at quite a distance from the impact location.

Also wondering when there was ever a "politically stable world without conflicts"

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by kadoban on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @09:12AM (#28604704)
That's true, but we already have that. There's nukes all over the place. Not in all countries, but many.
Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by yesenadam on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @09:47AM (#28604982)
> Not in all countries, but many.

In 9 out of 195 countries.

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by kadoban on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @10:13AM (#28605188)
True (I think? Right ballpark anyway). But, how much of the population does that cover? Between China and India to start with, should be quite a lot. And then you have alliances, the US has nukes in Europe and submarines a bunch of places.

And that's just all the publicly known ones.

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by dr_zoidberg on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @10:21AM (#28605245)
You're not wrong. Possibly the biggest issue would be how can you quickly launch one of these without triggering WW3.

Another issue I'm thinking is that I don't know the state of the art of meteor/bolide trajectory estimation (it's apparently very poor), so you'd probably need to fire a bunch of these (or a very large one) along an (uncertain) path hoping for it to affect the impactor.

So this is just more of the same problem: how do you fire a barrage of nuclear missiles over a region to stop an impactor in such a way that you're not mistaken for a madman starting nuclear war?

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by ClumsyPilot on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @12:49PM (#28606950)
This discussion is all wrong - nuking an approaching asteroid is like shooting an approaching freight train - it's too late to stop.

The asteroid needs to be pushed with a nuke, or another method, while it's still in deep space, months or years before it would strike. It would be many times beyong the orbit of the moon, millions of kilometers.

ICBMs are for ground targets, their "reach" is a thousand kilometers or so, they have no navigation or tsrgeting for space.

Instead a spacecraft like Rosetta would to be equipped with a nuke and launched on a normal space rocket like Falcon 9 or Ariane or Soyuz. We only need to produce a couple of them in case of launch failure, we don't need thousands of them like we have ICBMs. The launch would not look anything like an ICBM launch, it does not come back to earth.

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by raducu on Wednesday September 22, 2021 @03:00AM (#28613758)
It depends on the asteroid size.

Afik, there's a very abrupt limit on the size of an asteroid where if it's larger it will "touch" the ground and if it's smaller, it airbursts.

So if we could split the asteroid in 10, maybe we go from "completely destroy everything within a 100 miles radius" to 10 Chelyabinsk events.

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by dr_zoidberg on Wednesday September 22, 2021 @09:16AM (#28615935)
For asteroids that can be detected with lots of time, yes, deflecting them with time is totally the way to go. As the discussion was with bolides, I assumed we were talking in an "impending danger, no time to act" framework.
Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by ClumsyPilot on Wednesday September 22, 2021 @12:03PM (#28617979)
In this context 'Lost of time' means years in advance, so you can finetune it's orbit.

'Impeding danger' means weeks or days at a minimum, so you have to use a nuke. It would be near moon's orbit.

If it's a bolide, it's in the atmosphere, moving faster than any missile. Its like trying to stop a bullet after it intered you epidemis - you already lost.

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by dr_zoidberg on Wednesday September 22, 2021 @12:21PM (#28618246)
I understand that bolides would be the biggest danger right now, as they are small enough to be practically undetectable, but may be large enough to level a city. Are there any measures we can take against them? [0]

[0] I'm aware one of our best bets here would be a proper survey and sensitive enough telescopes/satellites actively looking for these kind of objects. And that there are some projects and programs along these lines already. It'd seem there's some more work to be done in that area though.

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by kadoban on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @10:27AM (#28605320)
Yeah that's a real problem, or several. Not even sure which would be the hardest to solve...

Am I wrong to wonder if a nuke would even do it either? I mean it's a ~solid rock that's capaple of surviving a pretty good beating from the atmosphere. What's a nuke going to do exactly? Are we hoping for redirection, or destruction or?

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by cuspycode on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @02:31PM (#28608154)
As I understand it, redirection is our best hope. Destruction via nukes would only work for comparatively small rocks. There is a fairly comprehensive write-up of the various options on Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_impact_avoidance

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by ericbarrett on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @10:25AM (#28605294)
Would even the largest nuke do much to a 50m-wide chunk of iron traveling at 20+ km/s?
Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by ClumsyPilot on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @01:00PM (#28607087)
Earth travels around the Sun at 30 km/s, delay an asteroid by 4 minutes and it will miss completely.

If your nuke can slow the asteroid from 20km/s to 19.9 km/s, then you need to nuke it 6 days before it hits earth.

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by VLM on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @11:25AM (#28605970)
The global reaction to COVID is highly relevant to this discussion. As with covid the secondary and tertiary effects will be vastly greater than the primary effects.

There is a fascinating logistics and timing feature to this whole topic. Aside from global panic'd masses. There is a huge logistical difference between sudden and unplanned electrical grid shutdown and subsequent black start vs a pre-planned five minutes outage (assuming we can predict impact to five minutes). Another interesting electrical utility issue is the radiological damage from a melted-down nuclear power plant varies exponentially with time... There's a huge difference in expected damage between whacking the coolant pumps a month in advance vs a day in advance vs a minute of warning vs no warning at all just no coolant flow.

Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by jtwaleson on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @10:56PM (#28612671)
About the water part: Historically you are completely right, but with the crazy amount of global shipping in the 21st century, I think lots of sea impacts would be detected and/or sink a couple of ships. Take a look at vessel finder and you'll see that there are only a few areas where ships are really far apart.
Re:A Tunguska size burst destroyed Tall el-Hammam, Bronze Ag... by noisy_boy on Tuesday September 21, 2021 @08:12AM (#28604233)
Veritasium did pretty good video about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Wrc4fHSCpw