Futarchy: Robin Hanson on prediction markets

Re:Futarchy: Robin Hanson on prediction markets by RandomLensman on Wednesday September 15, 2021 @05:00PM (#28544276)

Bit presumptuous to assume I have not been involved with the creation of markets, trading, etc. I have seen stuff work as well as fail up close in large arenas. [Edit: sorry, I should not snark. You are right that criticizing is easy creation is not.]

Going from academic ideas of markets and experiments to actual deep and useful markets is surprisingly difficult.

EDIT: the failure to create proper working markets for GDP-linked derivatives is good example of something that should but actually ain't. Not enough market making risk takers, limited hedges, unbalanced demand between long and short demand, index issues, ...

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Re:Futarchy: Robin Hanson on prediction markets by zerobits on Wednesday September 15, 2021 @07:11PM (#28545645)

I didn’t assume that of you at all, I actually had assumed the opposite and that you had experience in the area.

I agree it would be challenging to have deep and useful markets, but perhaps there’s more innovation to be made there — and many of these high level markets that are top of public consciousness I’d expect to have plenty of liquidity.

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