We’re not going to have a jobless recovery. We’re going to have a jobless future

Re:We’re not going to have a jobless recovery. We’re going t... by lionhearted on Friday August 05, 2011 @08:33PM (#2852392)

> PG, what probability would you assign to the propositions "This time things are different" (empirically: the jobs won't come back 5 years from now) vs. "This time things are not different" (empirically: the jobs will come back 5 years from now)? Warning, if your probabilities are extreme enough, someone might want to bet you on it.

What odds would you bet on?

I'll lay you 10:1 that world GDP continues to trend up barring WWIII or other force majeure type event.

Some nations will net lose though. The American currency trades at roughly +25% worldwide due to stability/prestige, and the recent administrations are really doing all they can to undermine both of those. So, American could net lose jobs and net lose GDP (implausible, but possible). But worldwide? Massive increases.

So anyways, what odds on what proposition are you looking for, and what timeline? We're both semi-public figures, I reckon we'd both be good for the money :)

(Rest of the comment is insightful and huge fan of your work, rationality, HPMOR, etc, etc, etc. But I'll lay favorable odds on "this time is not different")

Edit: To clarify, I'm disputing this from the article as I think PG is: "Our new economy is shrinking because technology leads to efficiency over growth." I don't think it is. World GDP continues to massively increase. I also think if America would get out of making financial fuckery the top government and private priority and get back into the entrepreneurship/production/hardwork then the USA will continue to do quite well, too.

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Re:We’re not going to have a jobless recovery. We’re going t... by watmough on Saturday August 06, 2011 @04:27AM (#2853408)

I'll take your bet, but you might want to look at this chart before you hand me your money.

http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&#...

And this one.

http://wastedenergy.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/20080301worl...

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Re:We’re not going to have a jobless recovery. We’re going t... by kahirsch on Saturday August 06, 2011 @04:00PM (#2854775)

> I'll take your bet, but you might want to look at this chart before you hand me your money.

Yes, there was a serious recession in 2009. In 2010, world GDP increased by 3.9%, according to preliminary World Bank figures.

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Re:We’re not going to have a jobless recovery. We’re going t... by wazoox on Sunday August 07, 2011 @09:21AM (#2856551)

Historically, since WWII each rapid spike of oil prices over 2006 100$/barrel for a few months is followed with a recession one year later. If the trend stays true, 2012 will be a recession year.

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Re:We’re not going to have a jobless recovery. We’re going t... by watmough on Sunday August 07, 2011 @02:48PM (#2857393)

If you define recovery as a return to the pre-recession peak income less transfer payments, we've never actually recovered.

http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html?GDP#category=GDP&cha...

I suspect this would resonate with a majority of Americans.

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Re:We’re not going to have a jobless recovery. We’re going t... by watmough on Sunday August 07, 2011 @02:55PM (#2857410)

World GDP in a country with fast-growing economies and slow-growing economies, is not that useful a measure.

As an example, Brazil, China, India have actually been growing at rates that would be miraculous in the US, because they have labor-intensive industry and increasing oil supplies.

Old countries like the US, UK, France have barely moved the needle, and are scraping by through money-printing to finance massive deficits.

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Re:We’re not going to have a jobless recovery. We’re going t... by jfager on Friday August 05, 2011 @09:29PM (#2852571)

Why are you bringing up GDP? The discussion is about employment. Okun's Law isn't actually a law, it's a historically observed relationship.

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Re:We’re not going to have a jobless recovery. We’re going t... by Troll_Whisperer on Saturday August 06, 2011 @11:17AM (#2854017)

It's hard not to see bringing up GDP as anything other than an attempt to derail the discussion. The author was talking about employment. Implying that the claim was that GDP would go down (which is much less likely), and defeating that claim would have no logical bearing on whether employment will recover.

But it might confuse people into thinking it will.

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