The correct level of paranoia is behaving in such a way that all your systems could be fully compromised and it would still never link to your real identity. If you're scared of anything short of a signal locator van you're doing it wrong.
People that used that method have been caught.
I guess the best way to be anonymous is to be schizophrenic.
Real "vs. NSA" security is nigh impossible right now for any persistent operation. Especially given ARGUS style eye-in-the-sky citywide object tracking.
Maybe the most successful model would be an actual homeless person who wanders by walking and hitchiking and never sleeps in the same area twice.
One of the benefits of mass surveillance(for the state) is that people of interest have no way of communicating with the world securely/secretly, they have to assume that everything is tapped and actively hostile to their communication setups.
That means that you could be recognized as a part of shortest path to undermine some person of interest, and there is no reason for you to assume that they will hesitate to harm you and your safety/comfort
I use them because it's the best I can do, but I'm very suspicious. I would think the NSA is misappropriating my tax dollars if they hadn't compromised all of the VPN providers years ago. We also know the US has a history of selling compromised security equipment (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/national-...)
Don't get me wrong, I wish the NSA wasn't what it is, but if I'm paying for the federal government to be doing work, I expect them to do it exceedingly well.
So what's the case the United States is so incompetent as to let Mullvad go untapped?
Edit: the answer is that there apparently is no case. maqp was writing up the answer to my question in a response to another comment while I was writing mine.
Edit 2: My personal threat model largely accepts that the NSA, CIA, and FBI can have their way with me in the unlikely event that they notice my existence. I can live with that because they have no reason to take notice. Despite my annoying moral values, I'm not a threat to the state. However, I find the focus on nation-state actors in an ad for a service that clearly can't protect from them to be distressingly dishonest.