It is somewhat worthless to pile assumptions on top of assumptions to come to conclusions. If you look at the map of Share of I.C.U. beds occupied, you can make a better, more finely grained decision. [1]

The question I asked has nothing to do with whether ICU beds are occupied. However, I also will point out that you are replying to a reply to a reply to my question, none of which actually addressed what I asked.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/davidson-tenness...