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Re:Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers by nradov on Thursday September 09, 2021 @05:42PM (#28475016)
What is your scientific basis for betting that Prof. Pollard is incorrect? Even though vaccination likely reduces the risk of transmission, we have no evidence that even a very high level of vaccination would be sufficient to reduce R0 below 1.0. It's impossible to reach 100% coverage and even countries with high vaccination levels are still experiencing uncontrolled community spread. We can flatten the curve to an extent (useful for reducing impact on the healthcare system), but it's unlikely that we can significantly reduce the area under the curve.
Re:Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers by lamontcg on Thursday September 09, 2021 @06:23PM (#28475351)
What evidence does he have of actual transmission? I want to see actual studies with humans with breakthrough infections giving infections to other humans. I'd like to see one contact tracing case where a breakthrough infection was the index patient that spread it to multiple people at a given venue.

I've already posted studies which contradicts the idea that breakthrough infections are equivalent to unvaccinated infections in terms of actual live viral load, which should show up as reduced transmissibility. And the reduction in severity of symptoms with vaccination is highly unlikely to come without a corresponding reduction in transmissibility. What is his scientific data showing that viral loads, symptoms and transmissibility have somehow become completely decoupled?

And we seem to have forgotten that most of the spread of this disease is caused by individual superspreaders. Only 20% of the infections are responsible for 80% of the forward transmission. If vaccines reduce severe transmission the same way they reduce severe disease then they could very well have a disproportional impact on r0.

> It's impossible to reach 100% coverage

The fact that we can't hit 100% coverage doesn't imply that vaccines in the population that we can vaccinate aren't highly effective at reducing transmission.

Also if you're just making an argument by authority, then go watch all the recent TWiV episodes. I don't necessarily agree with Herr Professor Doktor Racaniello about everything (delta really is a lot more transmissible/virulent), but the whole crew there would tend to agree with me, and wants to see the real transmissibility studies with real humans infecting real humans.

Re:Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers by nradov on Thursday September 09, 2021 @08:31PM (#28476416)
This is not an argument by authority. There is strong evidence of significant Delta variant transmission by vaccinated people.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02187-1

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effective...

https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387

Re:Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers by lamontcg on Friday September 10, 2021 @01:12PM (#28484477)
That nature article is still repeating arguments which conflate studies of Ct values of RNA with infectious virus and don't address the fact that vaccines reduce symptoms and that Ct values drop faster in vaccinated individuals.

The CDC article doesn't say anything other than "People who get vaccine breakthrough infections can be contagious" without any citation.

The actual study you cite only tests for viral RNA not infectious virus, they only cultured a single sample from a breakthrough infection to show that it could happen.

Other studies have found that viral RNA drops faster in vaccinated individuals, and that levels of culturable virus are lower at peak in vaccinated individuals indicating the presence of more viral debris than infectious virus:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.20.21262158v...

We also know that viral loads are correlated with transmissibility and symptoms, and that vaccines reduce severe symptoms. We know there's less infectious virus in breakthrough infections and that they're less severe. It is rational to expect a reduction in transmissibility.

Re:Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers by croon on Friday September 10, 2021 @04:56AM (#28479186)
The point is; Is it more (/less/no change) transmittive vaccinated vs unvaccinated? If it lowers transmittion only a tiny bit it's still net positive.
Re:Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers by simonh on Friday September 10, 2021 @11:24AM (#28482865)
I'm afraid you're probably correct. I fully support vaccination, am vaccinated and support vaccine mandates. Still, the fact is here in Britain high vaccination rates are not stopping the propagation of the virus. Maybe if we also had a full lockdown as well that combined with vaccination might stop it spreading, but that's not a reasonable policy given the low risk of the virus to the vaccinated population and young people.
Re:Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers by nradov on Friday September 10, 2021 @12:48PM (#28484113)
A full lockdown is not practical, nor would it be effective. SARS-CoV-2 has multiple animal reservoirs. So even if we could somehow eliminate it from all humans simultaneously (we can't), someone would just catch it from an animal again and the whole pandemic would restart. The bats which presumably transmitted it to humans in 2019 are still out there somewhere.
Re:Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers by lamontcg on Friday September 10, 2021 @01:21PM (#28484591)
You still don't have high enough vaccination rates.

All the kids under 16 have a vaccination rate of 0% and they still count and they commingle and provide a reservoir. The vaccination rate in 16-25 year olds is also probably not high enough to achieve herd immunity with delta. It isn't a particular mystery why its still spreading unless you assume kids don't exist.

A single number for vaccination status and herd immunity would only be meaningful if the population was randomly well-mixed. In reality kids are much more likely to see other kids every day than hang out with the elderly.

Re:Biden to mandate coronavirus vaccine for federal workers by simonh on Friday September 10, 2021 @02:19PM (#28485280)
Estimates for case rates among under 16s are up to 50%, half of them may well have had it already. They also fight it off fairly quickly and the vaccine doesn't stop you getting it. Add all that together and there rally doesn't look like a compelling case for vaccing kinds, at least in the UK.

We are rolling it out to 16-17 year olds, which happens to be the ages of my kids and both had their first shots about a week ago. There may be some marginal benefit for youngsters, but those dose are better deployed elsewhere. Over 17s are already well vaccinated here.

I'm not at all anti-vaccine, they've transformed the UK, but there's just no point vaccing under 16s. We're deep into diminishing returns with that, and those doses are sorely needed in many other countries.