We actually know their motivations because Bin Laden didn't hide his agenda. He wrote a fair bit on the topic. He wanted to force a change in US foreign policy to stop supporting Israel specifically and to leave the middle east in general. He saw himself as an Islamic anti-imperialist. It was actually pretty straight forward.

step 1: have big terrorist attack on American civilians

step 2: American civilians ask "why me?", his words not mine btw.

step 3: civilians find out what US gov has been doing in the middle east and call for change.

In hindsight its an incredibly naïve plan. And I think it ironically shows a lack of knowing your enemy on his part. Americans don't take well to being attacked or intimidated. If you want them to leave you alone the worst thing you can do is provoke them to action.

There's nothing hypothetical about it. I'm actually baffled at the fact that people here infer random motivations when Usama bin Laden gave interviews as far back as the early 90s and held multiple speeches after 9/11.

The stated goal of the attacks was to show Americans that their continuous war and support for secular dictators in the Muslim world would come with high cost, and to force the American government to retreat from the Middle East.

This of course backfired spectacularly. Revenge is certainly a primary motivation, too, but I really don't think there is much room on the interpretation for the initial motivation because Al Qaeda was always very open and clear about it.

It's funny, but in a way, he accomplished his goal of getting us out of the middle east. Our weariness with our involvement in the middle east has caused a big push for energy independence.

We fracked our way back to being the worlds largest oil producer. That, and our transition to a greener economy is bad news for middle eastern oil producers. We're much more willing to leave the entire region to their own miserable devices.

Biden is getting a lot of flack for pulling out of Afghanistan, and yes, he completely dropped the ball on the organization of the withdrawal, but if it means that not one more drop of american blood is shed, it's worth it.

Anand Gopal’s article in the New Yorker this month shows how the Afghan Army (including the media darling Sami Sadat) was wasting civilians in Helmand using the vaunted Black Hawks we gave them and calling it progress.

I'd say it's been remarkably successful.

The US has abandoned Syria, Iraq, Kurds. It still has some sway with Saudi Arabia and Israel, none in Egypt or Libya.

The withdrawal from Afghanistan is a culmination of that.

The neo-conservative response to Al Qaeda was exactly what was needed to provoke this collapse over 20 years.

At the time of the 9/11 attacks, the US did not have bases in in Afghanistan, Iraq or Libya. Bin Laden was complaining about US presence in Saudi Arabia and Israel. So even with recent withdrawals, the US presence is only back at the level at the tine of the attacks. I don't see how this can in any way be construed as successful?

The purpose of the 9/11 attacks was to get the American public to demand the US withdraws support to Israel and Saudi Arabia. This has clearly failed.

> The US has abandoned Syria, Iraq, Kurds.

It wasn’t much involved in any of those (and indeed had already abandoned the Kurds after the conflict which motivated the formation of al-Qaeda) when al-Qaeda actually got organized. It got reinvolved with them largely enabled by the political fallout from 9/11.

> The withdrawal from Afghanistan is a culmination of that.

Again, that's mostly a reversion to the status quo ante.

Yes, but that took 20 years. Before, they got a war and permanent drone terror plus a massive amount of ground troops. I doubt 9/11 has anything to do with them retreating now; in fact, it's probably helping that the scars heal.

>The stated goal of the attacks was to show Americans that their continuous war and support for secular dictators in the Muslim world would come with high cost, and to force the American government to retreat from the Middle East. This of course backfired spectacularly.

No, this was not his goal, and no it did not fail. His stated goal was to recreate the mujahedeen success against the Soviet Union, where they used low cost guerrilla fighting to draw out a costly and unpopular war until it bankrupted the Soviets and then they retreated from Afghanistan. It is debatable how much effect the cost of the Afghan war had on the collapse of the Soviet Union, but the key is that Bin Laden believed it.

His goal was to drive out the Americans eventually. There is no evidence or reason to believe he thought that 9/11 would directly lead to American withdrawal from the Greater Middle East.

>”We—with Allah's help—call on every Muslim who believes in Allah and wishes to be rewarded to comply with Allah's order to kill the Americans and plunder their money wherever and whenever they find it. We also call on Muslim ulema, leaders, youths, and soldiers to launch the raid on Satan's U.S. troops and the devil's supporters allying with them, and to displace those who are behind them so that they may learn a lesson.” Osama Bin Laden’s 1998 Fatwa [1]

Even in 2004, we knew that Al Qaeda propaganda fueled by US invasions of Muslim countries was strengthening, not weakening, Al Qaeda.

“Any assessment that the global terror movement has been rolled back or that even one component, Al Qaeda, is on the run is optimistic and most certainly incorrect. Bin Laden's doctrines are now playing themselves out all over the world. Destroying Al Qaeda will not resolve the problem.” 2004 M.J. Gohel, head of the Asia-Pacific Foundation, a London think tank [2]

And in his own words, what Bin Laden wanted out of the Afghan war, in 2004. Russia lasted 10 years before they were “forced to withdraw in defeat”. The US made almost made it to 20.

>”Even though we are in the fourth year after the events of September 11th, Bush is still engaged in distortion, deception and hiding from you the real causes. And thus, the reasons are still there for a repeat of what occurred”

>”All that we have mentioned has made it easy for us to provoke and bait this administration. All that we have to do is to send two mujahidin to the furthest point east to raise a piece of cloth on which is written al-Qaida, in order to make the generals race there to cause America to suffer human, economic, and political losses without their achieving for it anything of note other than some benefits for their private companies.”

>”This is in addition to our having experience in using guerrilla warfare and the war of attrition to fight tyrannical superpowers, as we, alongside the mujahidin, bled Russia for 10 years, until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat.” Bin Laden Interview in 2004 [3]

[1] https://irp.fas.org/world/para/docs/980223-fatwa.htm

[2] https://www.globalissues.org/article/512/the-new-face-of-al-...

[3] https://www.pastemagazine.com/politics/september-11th/911-ac...