Ask how many reports the hiring manager has, and how many it was a year ago. If it was 10 and now it’s 20, that hiring manager is probably desperate to hire a lead to take care of some of the people managing.
I’ve seen this at Facebook and Google, so it’s not just small companies.
With startups, it’s much easier to determine if the team hiring is growing, because the answer is yes.
Edit: typos
It seems to be a cultural thing. In the US, the manager is not seen as “superior” necessarily and many people actively do not want to be promoted (and a bunch of kids pouring into the field every year) so getting a management position is not particularly hard, even if you’re under 30.
Yes, I have gone exactly through this myself, and now that I'm a manager I've helped several people become managers themselves, and it always starts with people expressing interest in the path. It's generally very encouraged where I work.
>>get managed out rather than promoted, I bet you.
That's a pretty wild bet to make, given that you know, I'm actually talking from experience.
First, you start out with "team lead" then work your way up after showing enthusiasm and reliability. Get the Fournier book, The Manager's Path.