However, regarding efficacy on the delta variant, from here [1]: Data so far suggests efficacy rates of approximately 67 percent for the J&J vaccine, 66 to 95 percent for the Moderna vaccine, and 42 to 96 percent for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
Seems like pretty good efficacy to me.
[1] https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-how-well-covid-...
Since January the state has recorded the following numbers of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths: [1]
Unvaccinated Vaccinated
C 278,508 6,740
H 16,322 226
D 5,709 78
(The article did not provide a full breakdown by age, but did note that Indiana’s vaccinated population skews older and would have higher baseline risk for complications.)[1]: https://www.kpcnews.com/covid-19/article_f0e9bff4-a968-56b3-...
1) The infection/hospitalization/death rates were highest last winter, and relatively few people were vaccinated during the peak of the infection
2) A large proportion of the people in the Unvaccinated column here were infected long before we reached the current vaccination rate.
3) Therefore, suggesting that the numbers in this table represent the outcome of vaccination is simply not correct. This data is aggregated across the entire vaccination campaign and is completely confounded by the timing of waves vs that of vaccination rates.
If the goal is to build trust and present data transparently and fairly, why not show the same data with aggregation starting in July or starting AFTER reaching 40% vaccination rate?
That article only provides cases from the week of August 15:
Unvaccinated Vaccinated
C 13,990 1,417It is not as effective as it was against earlier variants when it comes to preventing you from getting infected with COVID, but it is still very effective at preventing you from getting seriously ill or dying from COVID.
COVID is likely heading to endemic status where it is something we all get now and then, but we all have immunity from previous infections or vaccinations that largely protects us from serious illness when we do get it. In that world it is only your first infection that is dangerous for most people.
Vaccination essentially makes your first infection count as a second infection.
That's not exactly the case. Neutralizing antibodies created from the vaccines work about as well against delta as they did against alpha. The main differences are that delta:
* Spreads more efficiently
* Has a shorter incubation period
* Produces a higher viral load in those infected
The incubation period being shorter means your T-cells have less time to ramp up in the case of naturally-waning antibody levels (which applies to people who were vaccinated at the beginning of the year), giving the infection more time to set in (remember, viruses grow exponentially). The higher viral load likewise means that the circulating antibody levels that were adequate for alpha may not be sufficient for delta. So we may see that people vaccinated with Moderna now have a better response against delta due to it creating twice as many antibodies.
I'm not from US so I haven't checked the stats closely for those states. My current city of residence is Tokyo. Afaik right now hospitalization seems quite bad, and there's no strict lockdown. I'm trying to work from home and dodge rush hours as much as possible to reduce the risk for now.
Do you have any numbers of "old vs young" hospitalization in the majority unvacinated area? And stats such as "young vaccinated vs young unvacinated" would also be interesting to see I would guess.
I've heard about the delta variant being more dangerous to the young, so that's for sure a important point. But last I heard the vaccine is not that effective to Delta variant, and also the delta variant difference seems to not be that much bigger according to this[0] study I found Jeremy Howard link on Twitter (I've only read the summary so I might be wrong on this)
Edit: thanks for the link hackingforfun, I'll be sure to take a look at it (tomorrow as it's late night here right now)
[0] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...