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Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by koolba on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:42PM (#28361209)
The only major crime statistic that I’ll trust is the murder rate. It’s the only one that can’t be faked. Petty crime goes unreported. Arrest and conviction rates can be gamed. But you can’t hide people dying.
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by runnerup on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:45PM (#28361245)
Yes you can, just rule it a suicide or accident. I've seen a likely murder in mountain view misclassified as a diabetes-related accidental drowning.
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by MegaButts on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:48PM (#28361284)
Yeah, I've actually seen this happen enough times that I believe it's more common than people think. I don't have statistics, but I've noticed multiple people die under mysterious circumstances (including a close friend) and they were usually ruled a suicide, even when the family objected.
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by bshep on Monday August 30, 2021 @06:03PM (#28361430)
Example: Where I grew up if you didnt die within 24hrs or being shot it was not considered a murder, the gorvernment changed the way the statistic measures murders many years ago to lower the ‘murder’ rate.

Edit to add this link with the murder rates: https://www.statista.com/statistics/984823/homicide-rate-pue...

Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by co2benzoate on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:53PM (#28361337)
Have you considered getting in touch with an investigative journalist?
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by unethical_ban on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:50PM (#28361305)
Well, that's a "technically" while still missing the point. It is much more difficult to meaningfully shift murder rate numbers via mass mis-reporting, compared to other statistics.
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by haimez on Monday August 30, 2021 @09:56PM (#28363156)
I don’t think you’ve meaningfully proved that claim. The point was that you can, in fact, quite easily game stats even for murder. I’ll add this[1] as another example.

[1] - https://www.vox.com/world/2015/12/13/9989250/japan-crime-con...

Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by runnerup on Monday August 30, 2021 @11:23PM (#28363624)
To steelman this argument, I'd say it's hard to hide "excess deaths" across all causes lumped together. Although during covid we probably even managed to do that by reducing miles driven and presumably # of road deaths.
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by elzbardico on Monday August 30, 2021 @07:50PM (#28362352)
Brazilian police: Hold my bear.
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by wnevets on Monday August 30, 2021 @06:14PM (#28361521)
>The only major crime statistic that I’ll trust is the murder rate. It’s the only one that can’t be faked.

It absolutely can and has been. [1]

> Photos of the teenager’s corpse show a deep cut on his right arm, horrific bruising on his neck and chest. His face is swollen and covered with cuts. A silhouette of violence runs from the corner of his left eye over the cheekbone to his jaw, and his legs are pocked with small burns the size of a lighted cigarette. But police in Japan’s Aichi prefecture saw something else when they looked at the body of Takashi Saito, a 17-year-old sumo wrestler who arrived at a hospital in June. The cause of death was “heart disease,” police declared.

[1] https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2007-nov-09-fg-autop...

Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by onlyrealcuzzo on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:52PM (#28361324)
Fortunately, murder is a rare occurrence - so only trusting this isn't going to help much unless you live in a major US city.

The murder rate in most areas of the US is under 5 in 100,000.

There's less than 50 police departments in the US where you can expect even 50 murders per year. With numbers that small, you'll run into a lot of noise.

Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by retrac on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:54PM (#28361354)
We suffer this here. Toronto has roughly 40 - 80 murders each year. So each year comes with helpful headlines informing us the homicide rate has halved or doubled over the previous year, often with some commentary about what this regression/progression indicates for our society. If you average over a few years, you find out it's basically flat.
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by topspin on Monday August 30, 2021 @06:09PM (#28361482)
Statistics Canada has the Toronto Metropolitan Area averaging well over 100/year for the last 3 years:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=351000...

Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by spideymans on Monday August 30, 2021 @06:21PM (#28361590)
You're just talking about two different areas.

Your data is for the Greater Toronto Area. The commenter above you was referring to the City if Toronto (which is one of several municipalities in the Greater Toronto Area).

Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by FridayoLeary on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:59PM (#28361400)
"Murders up by 156%!!" (i.e. 20 more than last year)
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by kevingadd on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:46PM (#28361261)
Sadly many parts of the US (and other countries) have been hiding the death rate for our current pandemic with varying degrees of success, it's quite possible to hide murders too. You can disguise them as something else.
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by ipaddr on Monday August 30, 2021 @06:24PM (#28361625)
Other places are adding deaths to the covid list.
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by air7 on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:49PM (#28361289)
source?
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by dataflow on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:56PM (#28361370)
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by coding123 on Monday August 30, 2021 @06:06PM (#28361453)
Wow, didn't hear about this til now.
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by dataflow on Monday August 30, 2021 @07:57PM (#28362407)
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by Avshalom on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:48PM (#28361286)
murders go unreported/recorded all the time "NHI" "accident" "missing persons" and of course missing person implies there's some one who knows/is-willing-to-report that you're missing.
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by pengaru on Monday August 30, 2021 @06:08PM (#28361468)
Murder stats only count the found bodies, and even then as others have stated the classification as murder vs. other causes can and will be gamed.
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by filoeleven on Monday August 30, 2021 @11:41PM (#28363731)
You absolutely can.

Murder rates don’t include “justifiable homicide”, because police departments are not required to report officer-involved shootings or killings to the federal government, nor the outcomes of any investigations into them. Which can also be gamed.

I’m not saying that radically transforms the statistic—I have no idea. But it’s a factor.

Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by kolbe on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:46PM (#28361262)
Even murder can be tricky because medical advancements or hospital shutdowns can really impact the survival of severely injured people
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by misiti3780 on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:51PM (#28361310)
Yep, I learned this from The Wire!
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by timy2shoes on Monday August 30, 2021 @06:10PM (#28361492)
Even the murder stats can be juked, like McNulty's arc in season 5 or the bodies in the vacants.
Re:NYC major crime complaints fell when cops took a break fr... by gervu on Monday August 30, 2021 @05:49PM (#28361295)
Yeah, like the cops have never gotten caught claiming someone accidentally fell on 43 bullets before. Or like there haven't been numerous cases of misattributing COVID deaths because they were inconvenient for the genocidal robber nihilists we have passing for a major political party. And that's just malfeasance, there's plenty of just plain error involved.

Having a deaths count -- which itself definitely has error bars, otherwise what the heck are missing persons estimates -- doesn't mean you have a correct attribution of those deaths. Never trust data in the absence of auditing how it got there.