Re:Visualizing observed deaths using polar coordinates
by sleavey on Friday August 27, 2021 @07:54AM
(#28326653)
Even comparing excess deaths can be misleading, because you're comparing deaths during lockdown to deaths in previous years not in lockdown. In other words, you're not isolating a single variable (SARS-CoV-2 pandemic vs no pandemic) but rather multiple (pandemic plus non pharmaceutical interventions vs no pandemic).
Re:Visualizing observed deaths using polar coordinates
by roenxi on Friday August 27, 2021 @09:29AM
(#28327554)
We can sanity check the number fairly easily. COVID has a case fatality rate of ~0.5%, so if everyone in the US had caught the coronavirus there would be around 150k excess deaths. Probably multiply that by a 80% fudge factor to at least acknowledge that some of people who die of COVID were probably frail to start with and likely to get taken out by normal disease and aging.
Re:Visualizing observed deaths using polar coordinates
by doctor_eval on Friday August 27, 2021 @09:33AM
(#28327597)
0.5% of 300,000,000 is 1.5 million dead.
From what I've heard, it went both ways, depending on the point in time. E.g. Poland had an election coming up mid-pandemic, and around that period, many people believed the government is underreporting COVID deaths, by making doctors classify them as caused by any of the comorbidities present in the deceased (and past certain age, pretty much everyone had some comorbidity, e.g. a weak cardiovascular system, or cancer).
COVID statistics were always heavily politicized. I think the most reliable way of getting to the truth was, and still is, looking at the excess death counts (i.e. how many more people died in a given month over the average of deaths in that month in last few pre-pandemic years).