Ok, instead of some handwaving from economist, I'd rather have Nature [1] with loads of good references and no paywall.
My point is that we simply do not know. The word 'usual' is deceptive here. Usual for the viruses we studied? Usual for all viruses? Usual for viruses which recently have made the jump to a new species? We do not know. We simply have no idea.
Re:The Coronavirus Is Here Forever
by nintendo1889 on Thursday August 26, 2021 @09:35AM
(#28314719)
Nature paywall is on scihub. Just copy the doi.org url.
Re:The Coronavirus Is Here Forever
by paulddraper on Tuesday August 24, 2021 @12:04PM
(#28290654)
> usual
> no idea
No virologist or epidemiologist will say it is 'usual' that viruses tend to mutate to become less virulent. Perhaps, and even that is contentious, an expert could make a claim for a specific type of virus.
This type of reasoning is based on an assumption that a pathogen limits its reproductive number by increasing its virulence. It is reasonable to test this hypothesis, but unfortunately we do not have enough data points to make any conclusive statements.
Contagiousness can certainly increase. Virulency does not usually increase.
Severe flu seasons are characterized by increased infections, not so much increased fatality rate.
> Citation needed.
"Most viruses become less deadly as they mutate." https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/02/27/... (The article is about how COVID might buck the general trend. But in any case, that is the trend.)