It needs a trigger otherwise there will be plenty of bots to "arbitrage" on the said "price mismatch".
Whenever there is capital control, there will be "black market". The question is about depth and whether enough depth to influence the price everywhere.
The scenario you describe is a liquidation crisis for cryptocurrencies at large (everyone runs to Fiat). This certainly can happen, but needs a equivalent size of a trigger.
The lack of imagination... There are lots of exchanges that let you buy and sell Bitcoin with fiat directly without USDT. Everyone will buy Bitcoin with USDT, then immediately sell for USD. The price of Bitcoin measured in USDT will go up and measured in USD will go down. The "peg" will be broken through this "black market" (from the perspective of the tether organization).