I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that, by the end of the decade, the Ford F-150 could become the best-selling electric vehicle. (Nor, for that matter, is that anywhere near certain. I withhold judgement on whether or not it is probable). If that were to be true, then Tesla's valuation really doesn't make any sense.
- Buy batteries from Tesla
- Buy FSD automation from Tesla
- License Electric drivetrain technology from Tesla
- Ford cars will charge at Tesla SuperChargers
Particularly with licensing it's possible that Tesla would make more profit on an electric F-150 than Ford!
Just announcing a electric version and producing a million of them are quite different.
Even if the F-150 electric becomes the best selling electric vehicle, that doesn't change my point either.
With 50% CAGR the PE ratio does not seem so crazy, if growth were to stop, then yes it is crazy.
PE is literally the worst way to evaluate a company that is growing.
But seriously, that is one of the single worst ways to evaluate a company and instantly discredits anybody that uses it as their primary argument.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9FARebWUAYd5NI?format=jpg&name=...
Many of the production facilities that Ford uses, and huge sunk cost in things like engine production, are not an asset, but a cost in the long term.
Ford will not be making its own batteries, meaning somebody else will make a large part of the profit from each car.
Ford will not make its own self driving tech, so some other company will make that profit.
Ford will not sell its own cars, meaning they will lose large part of the margin on dealers.
Ford is massively invested in things that will be negative assets and has very, very little investment in the things that will matter in the next 5-10 years.