The relationship is not 3-way as Apple wants users to believe (Apple the defender, users the victim, third-parties the aggressor). The map of the territory is a lot more complex.
The surprising thing to me is that there have been so few critical reviews on the system as it exists today - they are 99.9% "what if" scenarios.
To put it a different way, the possibility has always existed that your trust could turn out to suddenly be misplaced in a single, near-instantaneous policy change. So most of the discussions are actually about reevaluating whether they should consider Apple devices to be a trusted system or not based on this policy change, and trying to predict future policy changes based on it.
The reality is that Apple's spat with the FBI was possible because the US legal system allows it. Other countries can demand anything they want, and Apple has to negotiate with them or decide whether they have to leave that market. The scanning is a US-only feature to comply with US regulations.
If say China adopts a policy Apple does not want to abide by, their choice is exclusively to leave the Chinese market and to potentially adapt to no Chinese manufacturing or even Chinese suppliers. But this is no more or less true than last week.
is also an early PRISM adopter and well known on cooperation with totalitarian regimes. Censoring Belarus protesters happened several months ago.
And now we are supposed to believe they can resist adding a hash to a list if the government asks? Are they serious?
You don't want CSAM scanning in the USA? Then ask your national government to change its laws requiring companies to be so vigilant against CSAM. Or we can ask that Apple become so powerful that they can shrug off the government.
That Apple cannot resist the government does not negate the observation that Apple is also a leader in consumer privacy.
Unfortunately we do not know that for certain. Companies were compelled to sign up to PRISM against their will. Yahoo in particular tried to resist and were threatened with financial destruction [1]. The Feds can essentially levy any sum of daily fines on a company like Yahoo or Apple any time they see fit, with a rubber stamp from the FISA court; they effectively demonstrated that with their confrontation with Yahoo. And it clearly terrified Yahoo.
We have no idea if what's being put into place by Apple is the start of a new program by the powers that be and Apple has little choice but to comply realistically, or be hammered financially (or worse, the Feds might just get dirty and target executives personally). If they were working on PRISM 3.0 and attempting to implement it, we would never know it at this juncture.
It's worth being suspicious of what's going on given the one certainty is we know very clearly what the authorities want, what they'd like to see happen, and that they never stop trying to prod things in that direction. They're always up to something shady, always looking for ways to advance the surveillance state. The Biden Admin years will see that effort turbo charged once again, as with the Bush & Obama years. Whatever they're up to right now (again, they're always working on new programs like PRISM, always), you can be sure it's big, likely illegal and a gross violation of human rights.
If they were forced the searches would be an unlawful violation of the constitution. Various tech companies have repeatedly testified under oath that they are performing the searches of customer data of their own free will and for their own benefit.
I wouldn't argue that it's an impossibility-- but if true it would be a shocking revelation that would result in hundreds or even thousands of cases being overturned once it was exposed. And if it were true it shouldn't improve our opinion of Apple's actions in the slightest: instead of being just an unethical invasion of privacy for commercial gain, they'd instead be complicit in a secret conspiracy to illegally violate the rights of hundreds of millions of Americans.
The leading narrative on /r/apple is now that "oh this invasive spyware has to exist so that apple can do E2EE iCloud", which is nonsense.
If they had done their job and deployed E2EE iCloud we wouldn't "need" this system in the first place.
It's a classic government pattern:
1. Create the problem (blocking E2EE such that providers have unencrypted copies of your content)
2. Screech and complain about this
3. Demand they do the thing you really wanted in the first place to solve the problem you created
Sign in with Apple allows users to provide minimal information in signing up for accounts; the idea that casual users should know how to setup email aliases is a joke. Apple private relay is the closest to getting grandma to use TOR. Apple is working on stopping pixel tracking in email.
Apple is also leading on the story of user permissions, which is a broken model where you blame users for accepting all the snooping in their lives, for not reading the TOS, and for their failure to negotiate against Walmart.