China has 1.4 billion people. You would expect them to have about ~20% share of emissions in a perfectly fair world, instead they have 28%. Since 1751, they have emitted 12.5% of all emissions while having an even larger share of the global population.

The US has 315 million people. You would expect them to have 4.5% share of emissions in a fair world. Instead, they have 15%. Since 1751, they have emitted 25% of all emissions.

The numbers seem pretty clear to me.

That doesn’t make the ”CO2 outsourcing” claim untrue. For the 1990-2008 period, the paper[1] cited as the source for the graph in question notes:

> Collectively, the net CO2 emission reduction of ∼2% (0.3 Gt CO2) in Annex B countries from 1990 to 2008 is much smaller than the additional net emission transfer of 1.2 Gt CO2 from non-Annex B to Annex B countries (equivalent to subtracting the net emission transfers in 2008 from 1990 in Fig. 2).

The situation may have improved since then[2], but already in 2008, China’s consumption share of its own emissions was 80%. This figure in itself neither proves or disproves whether developed nations have outsourced their emissions.

1: https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/21/8903.full.pdf

2: Our World in Data cites ”Global Carbon Budget” for newer figures, but it’s raw data, and I’m currently not able to process it myself.

I just straight-out don't believe that. Maybe this is by some incredibly narrow definition of CO2 production, whereby if the produce of a factory is first shipped to a harbor by a Chinese company before leaving China, it counts as 'internal'?

This study is a bit old and I’m ignoring their “technology based” method because I don’t think the climate cares if a country would have emitted less if they had equivalent tech[*] , but it shows Chinas consumption based emissions is about 84% of its production based emissions. I.e., 84% of the emissions generated in China were for products/services consumed in China.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146290111...

To your point, though, the article corroborates the emissions export claim. (The US is shown as a next exporter in emissions, with consumption based emissions ~13% higher than production emissions). Both points can be simultaneously true.

[*]for the sake of this discussion, at least. I can understand the relevance for creating policy though