The divorce rate for the first 5 years is less than 20% in the the US. The US has a higher divorce rate than many countries so, in general, this is untrue.

I'm not sure you've shown that. I would be surprised if any meaningful number of (non-arranged) marriages are established in year zero of the relationship. A quick Google search suggests to me that the average relationship is established five years before getting married.

The original assertion was that relationships tend to break down in year four, meaning that they aren't likely to make it to marriage in the typical case. Marriage data is only relevant to the outliers who married early, and as far as that goes they could all be found in that 20% quite easily, I'm sure. The data provided is not sufficient to know.

No. The original assertion is that monogamous relationships AND marriages breakdown in the first five years at “very high rates”. Marriages do not. And, as you say, if you got married you were probably monogamous for some time before that.

I’m not disputing that humans get together and break up all the time.

It’s unclear that monogamous relationships breakup “at very high rates” due to boredom either. There are many reasons relationships falter, boredom being but one of them.

No. There is no mention of marriage at all. The assertion was specific to monogamous relationships.

A monogamous relationship is usually, especially when not arranged, established well before marriage. Divorce rates that hinge on years of marriage and not years of relationship does not provide us with any useful information here.

How do you have "divorces" without marriage?

And why this strange obsession with arranged relationships?

It is rather straightforward. Some monogamous relationships will establish marriage. Sometimes before the four year mark of the relationship. This means that some relationships that fail in the fourth year will also end up in divorce. The date of marriage does not usually coincide with the date of establishing the relationship, however, and thus marriage data is not useful here.

I'm not sure where you find obsession with arranged marriages? The original comment excluded arranged relationships, presumably because people in arranged relationships maintain a relationship for different reasons than those in voluntary relationships. But if you really want to understand his intent, I'm not sure why you're asking me?

Because you said "especially when not arranged" ... I thought you are part of the obsession.

Arranged marriages have a lower divorce rate but a higher separation rate; suggesting cultural prohibitions against divorce and not a higher success rate. It's odd to keep culling those types of relationships out.

I was protecting against silly nitpickers coming back with "Oh, but in my arranged marriage, my relationship began on the day we were married!" But I guess the nitpickers will find something to nitpick about no matter what.

> But I guess the nitpickers will find something to nitpick about no matter what.

Ok, that was awesome. Guilty as charged.

Marriage != monogamous relationships

True. But they said “divorces”, I’m disputing that part. They have no support for the rest either.