1. With Erdogan, or without Erdogan, it's very unlikely Turkey will ever find any solace with anybody South, or East of their border. The article 5 will remain central to its defence if anything nasty comes up from the South, and the only option if Russia will attack them from the East.

2. Turkey will gain nothing from changing alignment to some distant foreign power.

It is already a strong military power, and it barely ventured past their immediate vicinity in Syria. It cannot really confront Greece, with foreign power backing, or not, because of NATO.

3. The West will continue tolerate Turkey because they really have no alternative to Turkey, and vice-versa.

2. Russia and Arab nations treat Türkiye with far more respect than Europe and Amerika

3. As çaydoğan gets more desperate before the 2023 elections, all bets are off.