Re:Intel's Process Roadmap to 2025: with 4nm, 3nm, 20A and 18A?
by ksec on Wednesday July 28, 2021 @01:20AM
(#27980497)
>t's still unclear to me what the market for x86-based machines is going to look like 3-5 years down the road.
~750M of PC are used in Cooperate and Business. And if IBM mainframe has taught us anything business couldn't give a f what ISA they are using. They want 100% ( when possible ) backward compatibility. Considering most Business PC are already using low end x86 CPU, and they have not been CPU bottlenecked for long, I mean most of them are still using PC with HDD for all sort of reasons. So I dont see them switching any time soon.
Excluding that the vast majority of PC are Laptop and Gaming PCs. Gaming wont switch. Laptop is a complicated issue. And I think it sort of depends on Microsoft and how aggressive will Apple price their MacBook Air. I see no reason why they cant have the lowest cost MacBook starting at $799 while maintaining the same margin.
On Server I think x86 is pretty much done, at least in the HyperScaler market. The whole reason why Amazon is an Intel foundry customer is because Amazon are moving everything they could to Graviton. So you either loss Amazon as a customer leaving them to buy some x86 for some smaller part of their AWS, or you try and Fab them a chip they want.
And I believe, for political reason, Intel will gain lots of foundry customers.
So while a potential lost of 30-40% of their DC market in the next 5 years. x86 should still be a healthy state in 5 years time.
~750M of PC are used in Cooperate and Business. And if IBM mainframe has taught us anything business couldn't give a f what ISA they are using. They want 100% ( when possible ) backward compatibility. Considering most Business PC are already using low end x86 CPU, and they have not been CPU bottlenecked for long, I mean most of them are still using PC with HDD for all sort of reasons. So I dont see them switching any time soon.
Excluding that the vast majority of PC are Laptop and Gaming PCs. Gaming wont switch. Laptop is a complicated issue. And I think it sort of depends on Microsoft and how aggressive will Apple price their MacBook Air. I see no reason why they cant have the lowest cost MacBook starting at $799 while maintaining the same margin.
On Server I think x86 is pretty much done, at least in the HyperScaler market. The whole reason why Amazon is an Intel foundry customer is because Amazon are moving everything they could to Graviton. So you either loss Amazon as a customer leaving them to buy some x86 for some smaller part of their AWS, or you try and Fab them a chip they want.
And I believe, for political reason, Intel will gain lots of foundry customers.
So while a potential lost of 30-40% of their DC market in the next 5 years. x86 should still be a healthy state in 5 years time.