I think I have the opposite reaction from the same data. The reason I can't get my own sugar water on a grocery store shelf is because the grocery store doesn't want to give space to something that only sells half as well. And, they are humans too, so I'm sure they are biased by the ads/perception of what they think other people want.

I think a lot of the long-term bonus of ads is to simply build a moat that other competitors find difficult to surmount.

I think you're overlooking a couple of grocery-specific issues.

Many major retailers will require that new brands invest a certain amount of money in advertising product to their region/market before stocking the product. It's also common to 'lease' shelf space to manufacturers.

I think we largely agree. I know people who have launched food items (bug snacks) that were piloted in a dozen or so Whole Foods. They didn't sell enough in the trial period that they weren't given offer/lease to return.

It was a super niche product they were making but were up against a couple products that I've at least seen ads for online. I think, theoretically, if those other companies didn't have a brand presence then perhaps my friends snacks would have had a slightly better shot at staying on the shelfs. However, from the other products data they may have seen no short-term gain from their ads.

A lot of marketing money is "paid" (simplifying here, but I can expand if desired) to get that shelf space from the store, as well, in ways that you probably didn't know/haven't thought about.

depends on the Store. WalMart doesn't sell shelf space the way most others do. Though WalMart is doing their own something that I don't understand.

1. You may already have a brand, but many don't - so they want people to switch.

2. People who don't drink soda need to get hooked somehow!

3. Increasing consumption. Think about the "Got Milk?" campaigns of the 90s - they weren't saying "drink XYZ brand milk", they were looking to increase milk consumption.

I think #3 is probably the biggest factor, tbh. That's why you see ads for cotton, milk, beef, avocado, etc.

#3 is because there are middlemen that don't count. The middlemen in dairy want you to buy their brand of milk. However the guy who owns the cows sells to whichever dairy gives the best deal (the big farms all have a contract with one dairy to supply only them, but there are enough small guys who sell to who ever they can). The guy who owns the cows wants you to buy milk and doesn't care what brand it is.

The same applies to the others you named: sure there are brand, but there is something large below the brand that doesn't care what brand, only that you are eating.

I think you're missing the biggest reason for product advertising, which is to notify/remind potential users/consumers that the product exists.

Many people are unaware that a given product exists at all, and others are unaware of all its potential uses; even occasional users can sometimes forget that they liked a product or found it useful.

Exactly. The cost and effectiveness of advertising is why there are a limited number of choices. Your choice has been made for you.