It's not a tautology to say for an apple to fall of a tree it has to be on a tree, it's not a tautology for a plane to crash to be flying first or for a car to stop it needs to be in motion first. They are all necessary conditions, in fact this is the definition of a necessary condition.

Something to be a necessary condition has nothing to do with time-reversibility, it simply states a logical relationship

Let me give you another example: To accelerate a body with mass m it is necessary to exert a force onto it. All mathematical descriptions In fact equivalency, requires conditions to be necessary and sufficient.

Your argument that physics describes a world with statistical regularities is a maybe a nice philosophy, however most physicists (and regular people) do not believe we live in a simulation, but physical laws describe the real world.