Mass exodus from Manhattan into the other boroughs. The biggest sacrifice you make in Manhattan is space, but you make it to be near your job.

Now that a lot of places are remote, the people who could afford a Manhattan apartment don't need it anymore and got tired of living in a shoebox.

You still get all the benefits of New York in the other boroughs, just in a 1 or 2 bedroom instead of a 5th floor studio walkup.

My educated guess: internet shopping, combined with property owners that don’t want to face reality and tell their accountants their shops aren’t worth what they used to be (a 100% guess is that’s sometimes due to incorrect incentives. If a property manager gets a bonus based on the (perceived) value of a property, more so than on the income it generates, raising prices can be the optimal short-term strategy, even if it means shops close left and right)

I don’t think it will happen in the USA, but I think a solution would be to tolerate squatting, if the squatters improve the neighborhood.

Can only speak anecdotally, but…

A significant number of our friends and family moved since the start of COVID but they went in different directions. We’re all mid-to-late 30s working in tech, mostly, so this is in no way representative of all the people making moves.

Some people moved out of the city entirely. All of these people have good jobs with high pay but decided that this was their opportunity to get the big house in a different area. In all but one case, these were renters who bought when they moved. That last case was a family that sold their place for more than asking price in 7 days and then bought a new place.

Others were renters who bought in the city. This includes me and my wife as well as two of her siblings. We have a handful of friends who either bought or are trying to buy. We and everyone I know doing this identify as “city people” who just don’t want to leave and are using this as an opportunity to upgrade space and take advantage of the benefits of home ownership. Many of our friends who rent took the opportunity to find a bigger place at a better rate or strong armed their landlords to get better deals.

So the tldr here: in our group of friends, the people who left were those who wanted to leave anyway and didn’t have the opportunity until now. The people who stayed are those who grew up here and/or just want to stay in the city long term.

Do you feel the ones who moved out are doing so permanently? From coworkers I know who did this, it seems they are all “city people” but are finding that they really like single family zoned neighborhoods, more space, and a slower paced environment. It seems to me like what began as an experiment is likely to be a permanent change for them. Anecdotally, my sense is that these are people that never gave living outside the city a chance, or had preconceptions about it, but with this pandemic driven experience they are figuring out their actual tastes or priorities.

I’m really not sure but I think it kind of depends on the people. All our friends who bought outside the city grew up elsewhere so they seemed to be really comfortable (and in many cases excited) about it. It was as if they had a multi-year plan that would culminate in this move and the pandemic just accelerated it.

That said, a handful of them have mentioned renting apartments in the city and already come down pretty frequently. I wouldn’t be surprised if their FOMO became overwhelming once things are fully reopened and wound up coming back permanently.

I'm from the NYC Metro.

Insane pricing pushed us out initially.

Philadelphia is such a horrible place, pre-covid I was longing to go back.

COVID restrictions and now the fallout from that don't make it feel like a good idea.

Really thinking about Florida now.

Florida to me will always be the place that people’s grandparents go when they get too old to deal with NYC winters. I realize that’s foolish but there it is.

If I was going to be a tax exile I’d be more inclined to look at parts of NH within the metro area of Boston and Texas (especially Austin). Maybe Nashville.

Florida is also extremely suburban, even in its biggest cities the truly “city” like parts are quite small. That lifestyle is not for everyone.

Florida is an ecodisaster slowly unfolding. I get that a winter hovel is a nice thing, but a permanent move to Florida? Between sea rise, and temperature rise....

As stated elsewhere... Slowly boiling frogs.

If you are wealthy with fuck you money, a summer home in Miami is pretty good spend even if it sinks. Anyone else however should strongly consider their plans on how long they intend to live there.

it will be something to see when people realize miami is not the netherlands and can't just be "sea walled from the sea"

And since the rich make policy in our techno-oligarchy either overtly or covertly, that is the problem. The rich will simply move latitudes/location rather than deal with the problem to avoid billions of poor people effectively drowning (ok they won't LITERALLY drown, they'll starve from farmland loss or when their cities become uninhabitable).

It's a bleak future if you are poor and immobile.

With the rise of totalitarian/authoritarian capitalism, the upper-middle class won't be able to move freely. So many of us in America are used to free movement in the first world.

The future points to the first world being economically submissive to China in the future, and perhaps politically, and political movements within the first world show great appetite for authoritarians and distrust of the democratic norms, and it's not just Trump. How much of that is Russian and Chinese shadow propaganda remains to be seen.

Want to see first world countries turn super-not-first-world? Send a flood of refugees. The American Authoritarian Right is built fundamentally on paranoia of illegal immigration. Look at what the Syrian immigration did to Europe.

Those refugee events are peanuts compared to the displacements projected by Global Warming. Between rising sea levels, ecosystem changes/desertification, and raw temperature spikes, there will likely be billions with a big B displaced, and that will cause everyone to close their borders.

I would not count on free mobility when you need it.

I moved from Boulder to Florida maybe 2.5 - 3 years ago.

After a year in Orlando, I moved to Miami, so have been here just under 2 years I think.

We are seeing so many people from California and other tech-heavy areas migrate here lately, it's insane.

In two months I'm joining you. Finding an apartment was hard too -- buildings are at 99% occupancy and go within hours.

What makes Philadelphia “horrible” in your eyes? As somehow who has lived in what I think were nice but not luxurious parts of both urban cores, I found Philly every bit as livable and probably more pleasant and friendly, but I’m in New York now for social and work reasons

Lived in Philadelphia from college years in the mid 2000s up until about 2019.

It is a great city that is extremely walkable, has passable public transit, a tech giant (Comcast) and lots of hospitals and universities boosting the local economy. It saw a rebirth beginning with revamping its Center City district and Broad Street in the late 90s/early 00’s that has radiated outward to other areas.

The problem with Philadelphia is that it is a city that is unable to take the next step to maintain its pace of improvement. The mayor and city council are unwilling to perform city-wide street cleaning out of fear of blowback from South Philly lifers who would then have to move their 6 cars once every two weeks. They currently cannot even collect residential trash on time on a weekly basis due to an overworked and understaffed sanitation department. Their transit is underfunded, partially due to them being a blue city in a state where most of the legislature is from rural red counties that would rather build barely used highways than extending their subway or commuter rail. And last but certainly not least, the opioid crisis makes the area around Kensington and Allegheny look like something from a third world country. The city seems to have no solution other than evicting the addicts from their current encampment every year or so, which just results in them setting up shop a few blocks over.

Perhaps voters should consider another party in the city. If your leaders are not making the right decisions, why don’t you vote for different leaders? Being completely married to a single party seems to lead to these types of outcomes. No matter how bad the politicians do, no one will vote against them because they are married to the party, for better or worse.

Delta loves Doris Florida are you ready for it?

Philadelphia is a wonderful city of great beauty and culture. What do you find so horrible?

I too am thinking of FL. Any particular city you are interested in?

I don't know about commercial, but a few years ago it seemed half or more of the new construction condos sat empty because they were investment speculation, foreign investment/hiding, and other real estate shenanigans.

The fact that quant spreadsheets extend to commercial is unsurprising.

The spreadsheets forget that you need people to make a city work.