$30k isn't cheap imo, the average person would need to take out a loan to go buy an EV. Outside of big cities infrastructure doesn't exist.

Also hauling stuff in an EV, which is where most of the emissions are, isn't even close to feasible yet.

>they’re much simpler to own and maintain

Maintain maybe... own not really https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32494027/ev-vs...

Personally, I have zero desire to sell my gas vehicle which will be perfectly fine for the next 5 years to drop 30k on an EV that won't be able to do as much.

> $30k isn't cheap imo

Many non-treehugger analysts are projecting upfront price parity is expected by ~2025 without subsidy. Coupled with lower fuel and maintenance costs the adoption curve will really take off at that point. Will they be for everyone at that point? No. By 2035? Seems likely they will be for the vast majority of people, my guess is there will need to be some option for plugin hybrids for some.

If they can create an SUV that can go off-road like my xterra can and can go the same distance hauling a decent weight I'll be interested. Until then I'll pass. I bike to work so I don't need a small commuter vehicle.

At least in the US, average sale price of a new car is $40k.

Big cities may have more public charging stations, but I'd say they are possibly the least suited to EV ownership because if you live in an apartment and park on the street, you can't charge your car at home.

That's true and I didn't even consider that. I was recently in the UK and actually the uber driver said the same thing. Most of them don't have driveway or garages so where are they going to park and charge their vehicles? This is pretty much the same situation in the rest of Europe as well.

You can get a used Nissan Leaf for about 8k right now. It's just the matter of time before some of the higher range cars are old enough to be cheap on the used car market.

Wow! That's a great price. Where can I get it at that price? The car looks okay but I can think of many others that I would rather own. The more "desirable" EVs seem sell at much higher price bracket as compared to their fossil fuel counterparts...

What year? How much are the batteries depleted on a used EV?

> $30k isn't cheap imo, the average person would need to take out a loan to go buy an EV.

$30K is cheaper than the average new car being sold right now by quite a bit, and most consumers get a loan to buy those. It seems more than a little bit strange to complain about a $30K EV being expensive when the average new car buyer is taking out a $40K loan for a gasoline car.

> Outside of big cities infrastructure doesn't exist.

Outside the big cities everyone has a garage. People also regularly overestimate how much they drive. The average American drives about 30 miles a day, you need to be in the top 1-2% of daily drivers[0] for range to be an issue, especially if you can charge at work.

> Also hauling stuff in an EV, which is where most of the emissions are, isn't even close to feasible yet.

Bulk freight by road is a stupid way to organize a society. Don't make semi-trucks green, use trains. They're far more efficient, have cheaper and longer lasting infrastructure, and are trivial electrify. Semi truck transit represents a massive handout to the semi truck industry in the form of unpaid road maintenance[1], we should stop that.

For smaller inner-city transit, we're getting very close. EV pickup trucks are already coming out, I would expect cargo vans to show up soon.

> Maintain maybe... own not really https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32494027/ev-vs...

I said that it was simpler to maintain and you replied with a link about it whether or not it is cheaper. Those are different words that mean different things.

Yes, EVs are not yet universally cheaper than ICE cars for all use patterns, but that appears to be almost entirely a factor of the purchase price, which is dropping year over year. EVs are lower maintenance (the link you provided backs this up), and cheaper to operate per mile than gasoline cars (your link also shows this). Given how quickly EVs have dropped in up front purchase price, I think we're really close to EVs being a no-brainer decision for most consumers.

> Personally, I have zero desire to sell my gas vehicle which will be perfectly fine for the next 5 years to drop 30k on an EV that won't be able to do as much.

I hope gasoline gets expensive enough and EVs get cheap enough to change your mind.

0 - https://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis.php

1 - Estimates range from 60 to 120 billion dollars per year. This includes congestion, accidents, and most importantly road damage. The wear that a vehicle causes to a road is proportional to the per-axle weight raised to the fourth power, which means that virtually all damage to public roads are caused by semi trucks and semi trucks alone.

> I expect gasoline engines to stop being popular in the next 4-5 years.

That may be true in the US and other countries dominated by suburbs (Australia?). However, I can't see that happening that quickly in dense cities in Europe - the cities just won't install millions of chargers required along all streets where people park quickly enough.

European cities should start banning cars regardless of what they're powered with, they do not fit into their older cities and they make everything worse. They should double down on public transit, and push cars out to where they provide more benefit than drawback.

That would make sense in the richest/tier1 cities, I don't think the rest could afford good enough public transit though.

> much simpler to own and maintain.

As a person who never owned an EV I am curious to know how it is simpler to maintain it?

Had my Leaf for 4 years, it's time to buy some new windscreen wipers. Apart from tyres, that's been it.

Rotate tires and refill the washer fluid. Done! I've had a Nissan Leaf since 2014, and that's all I have ever done.

And eventually replace the battery which is expensive and wipes out all the previous savings. EV batteries still need to become more durable and more repairable.

And sometimes EV manufacturers don't try very hard to do right by their customers:

https://www.thedrive.com/news/41493/teslas-16000-quote-for-a...

Assume $100/kWh, and a 50kWh battery, that's $5000 to replace it, after, let's say 100,000 miles. You've saved, let's say, 10 cents per mile on fuel, so that's $10,000 saved.

Battery should last about a million miles though, with proper temperature and charge management.

Once your battery has degraded to, say, 75%, now you have a free 35kWh battery to store power in your house, that's worth $3500

> Assume $100/kWh

Batteries are not that cheap in 50kWh quantities.

They should be by the time you need a replacement in 10 years

You usually don't replace the battery of an EV. It's like replacing the engine of an ICE car, it can be done but it's usually not worth it.

An old leaf with a bad battery should simply be sold for cheap to someone who needs less range.

Halving the utility of the vehicle relative to an ICE car. Being able to repair the battery at a reasonable cost is a more eco-friendly option than having to get a new car:

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39687/teslas-early-vehicles-ar...

Throwaway cars aren't good for anyone.

That's an argument against ICEs because of their non continuous failure. An old car with a 66% degraded battery can still be used. An old car with a busted engine is scrap.

Yup, my Leaf gets only about 40 miles of range on a good day :) But it still works for errands around town.

It would not make financial sense to ever replace the battery. It is better to just get another EV when I can no longer get out of my driveway :)

Buying a new EV is the same as replacing the battery and spending extra on top. It still wipes out the previous savings and increases your carbon footprint because another complete car was manufactured.

The used EV can replace another dirtier car.

No, it can't. Its range is now so low it's no longer practical. Expecting people to accept a lot less is not realistic.

I see tons of first gen Nissan leafs with shitty range every day. And they still have some value on the used market.

No, you don't. What you see are the few people who are willing to make compromises to practicality that the majority of people are not. I would not buy a first gen Nissan Leaf with shitty range and neither would most people.

I'm quite sure I do. The Leaf is the best seller where I live and a lot of them are getting old : https://elbilstatistikk.no/

People don't drive that many km everyday and an old Leaf is an okay second car to quite a lot of people. Anyway, it's just an example because the first gen Leaf is an old car with a low range and a battery with a high degradation. If you think about newer leafs and other cars with more range, it's not really a huge difference if the car has lost some range over time.

I'm quite sure you don't. There are 2.8 million registered private cars in Norway. 68,873 Leafs doesn't equal "tons" in comparison:

https://www.ssb.no/en/transport-og-reiseliv/landtransport/st...

> It's like replacing the engine of an ICE car

I downvoted you because that's not true. It's far easier to replace batteries than an engine. It requires minimal skill.

If they start building them into the body that may change though.

It's not the same kind of skills for sure. Some cars are easy to replace the battery, but you still need to deal with high voltage procedures. I wouldn't trust myself with an e-golf, but I wouldn't mind replacing the ice engine of a Twingo with the right tooling.

Yup, Tesla is shitty when it comes to things like repairs. They are like Apple, they want you to get a new car vs repair your old.

I suggest you avoid Tesla if you are the type of person to drive a car until the wheels fall off.

More of a right to repair issue than an EV issue.