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Re:California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds by kibwen on Thursday July 08, 2021 @07:50PM (#27778994)
I assume this is getting downvoted because of its tone, but the sentiment is correct. The statement is nonsense. There can be wisdom in attempting to understand why anecdotes disagree with data, but the vast majority of the time it is simply a combination of selection bias and the human tendency to want to believe things that support your own worldview.
Re:California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds by native_samples on Friday July 09, 2021 @04:53AM (#27781697)
Bezos is making a subtle point here that I feel people are overlooking.

1. Anecdotes that you notice, by their nature, tend to come from reasonably sized groups of people.

2. "Data" as the term is normally meant in business and government does not. It may originally consist of many individual data points that represent something about large groups of people, but by the time it reaches a decision maker it has been filtered through normally just one or two people who have selected it, normalized it, and analyzed it in various ways.

In other words, "data" is often not being used with its dictionary definition of a raw CSV file but rather it means "analysis". And unfortunately the nature of data analysis is that not only is it easy to make genuine mistakes but it can also be very easily manipulated in all sorts of ways to present whatever the analyst wants to be true.

Academic research is an especially prevalent form of this problem because people don't hesitate to claim they've made a "data" based decision then cite an academic paper that presents a model with some absurd assumptions, or where the model outputs aren't visibly connected to the paper's conclusions at all, or which shows signs of P-hacking, or where the dataset is unusably small and so on and so forth.

Hence why I find myself agreeing with the other posters - if you find yourself strongly disagreeing with Jeff Bezos about something that seems to be within his domain, think twice.

Re:California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds by 1123581321 on Friday July 09, 2021 @02:27AM (#27780980)
The statement is saying that in many situations, data is improperly or incompletely gathered, analyzed, and/or applied. Refusing to attempt to understand why an intensely data-driven individual would make that remark doesn’t seem wise. :)
Re:California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds by walkedaway on Thursday July 08, 2021 @08:47PM (#27779404)
> the vast majority of the time it is simply a combination of selection bias and the human tendency to want to believe things that support your own worldview

Citation needed.

Given Jeff Bezos success in growing a business from scratch, this is clearly one of his secrets and why "Are right, A Lot" is an Amazon leadership principle. I'm always surprised that people are so easy to dismiss insights from successful people.

Re:California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds by toofy on Thursday July 08, 2021 @10:45PM (#27780020)
> Given Jeff Bezos success in growing a business from scratch…

One thing we have to remember, savant level of greatness in one area can often indicate deficiencies in other areas.

If I were starting an online retailer 20 years ago, I would absolutely take Bezos’ advice. There are also countless other areas where I would seek advice from those with different areas of experience.

Re:California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds by michaelmrose on Thursday July 08, 2021 @09:45PM (#27779680)
Steve Jobs was fantastically successful at running a computer company. He's primarily dead because his business sensibilities were astute and on point while his knowledge of heath care was so laughable that one of the worlds wealthiest men ignored reasonable treatments that had a reasonable chance of saving him so long that all the money in the world couldn't. It seems that skill in business does not confer virtue in any other area of life and one ought not give a very successful person extraordinary consideration outside his area of expertise.

You have been presented with a thesis that the California exodus is a myth. You have responded with a complete non sequitur quote from a mediocre man about trusting the anecdote vs the data asking us to forget or ignore in order the fact that the idea espoused by the quotation is nonsense, that Bezos wasn't registering an opinion on this topic, you are, and that you have made no argument whatsoever.

It is untenable to launder your opinion through a rich dudes mouth and then accuse skeptics of casual dismissal of insights from successful people when people are actually and in fact not dismissing Bezos they are registering their opinion on your comment here today.

Re:California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds by CameronNemo on Thursday July 08, 2021 @09:01PM (#27779473)
Just because Bezos knew how to create a successful business, does not make him a successful person.