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Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by soperj on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @04:27PM (#27765398)
Unfortunate that it doesn't allow you to get back to zero. Various countries have managed to do it, including China with hard lock downs.
Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by kube-system on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @04:50PM (#27765598)
China is not at zero even today. Literally today they imposed a lockdown in Ruili due to an outbreak.
Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by shalmanese on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @05:49PM (#27766102)
a) it was yesterday.

b) getting back to zero does not mean staying at zero. China has had long stretches of time with zero reported cases of local transmission, punctuated by brief outbreaks like the current one.

Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by Izkata on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @11:19PM (#27768144)
On the Worldometers chart, China has never had any stretch with 0 cases (I'm mousing over the Total Cases graph and it never noticeably stays the same number; there may be a handful of single days mixed in there that aren't obvious like this). It's their deaths that stopped increasing - only 4 new deaths in over a year.
Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by DiogenesKynikos on Thursday July 08, 2021 @03:15AM (#27769140)
Worldometers is including travelers who get infected outside of China, but who are diagnosed as having SARS-CoV-2 while undergoing the mandatory quarantine to enter China.

That's different from people who get infected in China. There have been long stretches of time with zero local cases in China.

Just to illustrate the difference, here's a typical daily report from China's main public health authority:[1]

> BEIJING, June 28 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese mainland on Sunday reported 21 imported COVID-19 cases but no new locally transmitted cases, the National Health Commission said in its daily report on Monday.

The "imported cases" are among travelers undergoing quarantine.

There have been a few outbreaks with local transmission, but so far, all of them have been successfully contained before they spread very far. Right now, for example, there's an outbreak in a town on the border with Myanmar. The town itself has been locked down and everyone in it (270k people) has undergone PCR testing, and will be tested a second time over the coming days. So far, about two dozen infected people have been identified. However, outside of this town, there are currently zero local cases in China.

1. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-06/28/c_1310031605.htm

Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by DiogenesKynikos on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @06:34PM (#27766532)
And this outbreak currently only affects a single city on the border with Myanmar. The other 1.4 billion people are still going about their daily lives.
Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by soperj on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @05:50PM (#27766113)
How does that negate anything that I said?
Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by genericpenguin on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @06:25PM (#27766446)
It doesn't. I was also disappointed by this. I'm in Australia and we kept our numbers low by locking down hard and early and distinguishing between community transmission and infection via incoming travellers. We did often hit long periods of no community transmission and only had outbreaks due to breaches in protocol or sloppiness by some people's part.
Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by the_doctah on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @10:48PM (#27768013)
Its shocking to me that anyone believes numbers reported by China. They reported stopping at 80k around the time America started lockdown, and the total number is around 90k today. Absurd lies.
Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by DiogenesKynikos on Thursday July 08, 2021 @07:27AM (#27770580)
Lots of people on HN (and in the tech industry more broadly) live in China or have family in China. You can ask anyone you know who lives in China or who has family/friends in China what the situation has been like over the last year. Public spaces like restaurants and theaters have been open, nobody is coming down with CoVID-19, and the hospitals aren't overflowing.

This would simply be impossible if there were community spread of the virus inside China. With open restaurants, theaters, etc., the virus would spread like wildfire in China's dense cities, and everyone would know about it. The strict lockdowns in early 2020 worked to bring cases very near zero, and they were followed up with mass testing campaigns (for example, nearly all 11 million residents of Wuhan were tested in June 2020) to find the last few infections.[1,2]

The common reaction among many people, to deny that China eliminated SARS-CoV-2 within its borders, simply isn't tenable.

1. "Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China": https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

2. "Comprehensive large-scale nucleic acid–testing strategies support China’s sustained containment of COVID-19": https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01308-7