I don't want to "bet" with my long term investments intended to provide for basic survival. Instead I want to deploy things to a weighted average of equities (small, big, domestic, and world), bonds, and other assets (real estate) and occasionally rebalance (take profits).

And, one doesn't need some magical financial acumen to do this. You can buy a "target retirement" fund which simply holds things in a ratio (based on financial industry consensus) recommended for your retirement age.